The Teranet-National Bank composite index fell 0.5% from May to June, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline. As a result, prices have fallen 4.3% since January. This comes at a time when the resale market continues to be particularly weak, due in large part to the uncertainty surrounding the trade war with the United States. Although the number of transactions in the resale market has increased slightly over the past three months, market conditions have eased considerably across the country and now indicate a balanced market after being tighter than average. However, this reversal is mainly due to market conditions that are now strongly favourable to buyers in Ontario and British Columbia, which is causing prices to decline, particularly in these two provinces with persistent affordability challenges. In fact, 75% of markets (15 out of 20) in Ontario and British Columbia recorded a decline during the month, compared to 36% in other provinces (4 out of 11). As a result, prices are down 6.7% year-over-year in Toronto and 4.1% in Vancouver, highlighting the amplifying effect of affordability conditions in the current weak environment. Amid ongoing economic uncertainty, moderate population growth and the risk of continued high long-term interest rates, home prices are expected to remain under pressure in the coming months, even if the resale market regains some momentum. The accumulation of homes for sale will continue to weigh on prices in the coming months.

July 2025