The Teranet-National Bank composite index fell by 0.8% from June to July, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. As a result, prices have fallen by 5.0% since January. This comes against a backdrop where the resale market continues to be particularly weak, due in particular to the uncertainty surrounding the trade war with the United States. Although the number of transactions on the resale market has risen over the past four months, market conditions across the country have eased considerably and now indicate a balanced market after being tighter than average. However, this turnaround is mainly due to market conditions now strongly in favour of buyers in Ontario and British Columbia, which is having the effect of driving prices down, particularly in these two provinces with their persistent affordability challenges. As a result, prices are down on an annual basis by 6.7% in Toronto and 4.1% in Vancouver, highlighting the amplifying effect of affordability conditions in the current weak environment. Conversely, Quebec stands out, with Montreal and Quebec City experiencing the highest price increases among the eleven cities included in the composite index, but also with the strongest increases in other cities not included in the composite index, with double-digit annual growth in Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke. Against a backdrop of persistent economic uncertainty, moderating population growth and the risk of long-term interest rates remaining high, home prices are likely to remain under pressure over the coming months, even if the resale market may regain some strength. Indeed, the backlog of properties for sale will continue to weigh on prices over the coming months.

August 2025