The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index continued to improve in October, posting an increase for a third consecutive month, registering at +0.4%, following a period of price contraction from January to July. This rise comes as the number of transactions in the resale market has increased in recent months despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the trade dispute with the United States. While the increase in prices in October was more significant for certain markets, the diffusion was the best seen this year as a large majority of markets registered an increase. The only declines were registered in Montreal and Halifax, the former which edged down following a surge of 2.5% in the prior month and the latter which essentially reversed its previous performance (-1.2% after +1.0%). It should be noted, however, that despite the slight increase in prices over the past three months, the composite index is still down 3.9% in 2025, with significant declines in Toronto (-7.9%), Vancouver (-6.2%), and Hamilton (-5.6%).
Although the composite index maintained its upward trend in October, soft market conditions in Ontario and British Columbia are expected to constrain price increases in the near term, even with some relief from recent Bank of Canada policy rate cuts. While 5-year mortgage interest rates have edged down, they appear to be stabilizing and could be nearing a bottom. Combined with moderating population growth and a labour market that remains vulnerable, these factors could continue to weigh on the residential market outlook.