The Teranet-National Bank composite index continued to rise in November, posting a fourth consecutive monthly increase, up 0.4%, after a period of contraction during the first seven months of the year. This increase comes as the number of transactions in the resale market has risen in recent months as uncertainty surrounding the trade dispute with the United States has eased. In addition, improved affordability, due to more favourable fixed and variable interest rates and resilient household incomes, has supported price growth in some regions. This is particularly true in Quebec markets, which are more affordable than the national average and have experienced the highest annual price growth. Conversely, persistent affordability challenges in Toronto, Hamilton, and Vancouver continue to weigh on prices in an increasingly unfavorable demographic context. Although the composite index maintained its upward trend in November, continued market weakness in Ontario and British Columbia is expected to limit price increases at the national level in the short term. Recent cuts to the Bank of Canada’s policy rates have provided some relief, but 5-year mortgage rates could start to rise again in 2026 if our scenario of economic improvement materializes. Combined with population growth that is expected to moderate further, these factors could continue to weigh on the outlook for the residential market.

December 2025