The Teranet–National Bank Composite Index fell 0.4% in June, marking a seventh consecutive monthly decline and leaving prices 4.3% below their year-earlier level. The weakness in prices persists even as resale activity has improved for three straight months. Home sales rose 0.5% in June following stronger gains in April and May but remain -19.8% below their historical average (considering the number of households), suggesting that the recent improvement is better characterized as a recovery from depressed levels than a return to underlying strength. Moreover, Ontario accounted for the national increase in sales, but market conditions remain relatively soft in both Ontario and British Columbia given accumulated supply. This regional divide is also evident in prices: Toronto and Vancouver were down 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively, from a year earlier, while Quebec City, Winnipeg and Montreal continued to record gains.
The recent strengthening of the labour market and the improvement in affordability stemming from lower prices should support a gradual normalization in activity, particularly in Ontario. However, any price recovery is likely to remain modest and uneven. Population contraction is restraining underlying demand, mortgage rates have risen from their early-2026 lows, household appetite for major purchases remains subdued and uncertainty surrounding the CUSMA review continues to weigh on confidence. All told, we expect prices in Toronto and Vancouver to move closer to stabilization toward the end of the year, but broad-based or sustained gains remain unlikely in the near term.