Post Category: News and Economic Reports
October 12, 2018
Weakness in Vancouver and Calgary

When seasonal effects are removed, the Composite price index edged up in September, recovering some of the ground lost in previous months. While this applies in particular to Toronto, it is not the case for Vancouver and Calgary, where the seasonally adjusted indices extended a string of declines (left chart). This downtrend in home prices […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
September 12, 2018
Affordability erodes again in Q2

Mortgage interest rates were on the rise for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q2. As a result, affordability worsened in no less than 7 out of ten urban markets which explains the 12th consecutive deterioration of our urban composite index. Unsurprisingly, the rise in interest rates hit harder for the priciest markets in the country […]

Post Category: Monthly Reports
September 12, 2018
Weakness in Toronto and Vancouver after seasonal adjustment

In August the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.2% from the previous month.[1] Removing normal seasonal patterns (seasonal adjustment), the index would have been virtually flat, following retreats in June and July. In other words, after seasonal adjustment, the downtrend of June and July did not turn around in August. Individual […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
September 12, 2018
Weakness in Toronto and Vancouver

OPINION: The published Composite index rose in August for a fifth month in a row, but these rises only reflect usual seasonal patterns over this time of the year. Indeed, after seasonal adjustment, the Composite index was actually flat in August after drops in June and July. So, at the national level, the national market is […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
August 14, 2018
Neither strength nor deep weakness

OPINION: The Composite index rose in July for a fourth month in a row, but these rises were all below the historical average for these months. Indeed, after seasonal adjustment, the Composite index was flat in July after a drop in June. The same phenomenon applied to the Toronto index, where at the opposite of […]

Post Category: Monthly Reports
August 14, 2018
Seasonal pressures explain the rise of the Composite index in June and July

In July the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.8% from the previous month.[1] As in June, the gain might seem large but was below the historical average for the month (1.0% for July). If the index were purged from seasonal variations, the so-called “seasonally adjusted” index would have retreated in June […]

Post Category: Monthly Reports
July 12, 2018
Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ has made up the ground lost in second half of 2017

In June the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.9% from May. Though large at first glance, the increase was the third-smallest for June in the last 14 years. If we ignore the seasonal component of monthly variations, we cannot speak of a soaring index. The latest run of monthly increases is […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
July 12, 2018
In June, the index recovered the ground lost in H2 2017

OPINION: With June’s rise, the Composite Index just recovered the ground lost during H2 2017 (left chart). Does this mean that the Canadian home resale market is about to enter into a new frenzy? No. June’s rise in the index, impressive at first sight, was in fact weak for this time of the year. Indeed, […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
June 13, 2018
Teranet-National Bank HPI: The stabilization of home prices confirmed in May

OPINION: May’s rise in the Teranet-National Bank HPI confirmed the stabilization of home prices that took place since the end of last year, following a correction in H2 2017 (top chart). It is true that this stabilization was accompanied by a shift of price momentum in favor of condos in Toronto and Vancouver. Given the […]

Post Category: Monthly Reports
June 13, 2018
The Stabilization Of Home Prices Confirmed In May

In May the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  was up 1.0% from the previous month. This confirms the index stabilization following the downward trend that prevailed over the second half of 2017. The last monthly gain is one tick less than the May average of 1.1% over the 20 years of index history. […]