Author: Carli

OPINION: Housing starts declined sharply in the last month of 2017 but still managed to beat consensus expectations (211K). A retracement was always in the cards after the unsustainable figure posted in November (251.7K). A good chunk of the decline in December stemmed from an expected fall in multi-unit starts in Ontario (-34.0K) after the […]

FACTS: The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price IndexTM dropped 0.5% in November, a third monthly decline in a row. The index fell in four of the 11 constituents cities: Toronto (-1.4% – a fourth consecutive decline in the largest real estate market in Canada), Hamilton (-1.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.8%) and Edmonton (-0.7%). The indexes were […]

November Housing Starts FACTS: Housing starts reached 252.2K units in November, rising 29.5K (13.2%) from the level in October (top chart). The monthly increase can be explained by a 25.3K (16.9%) advance for multiple starts in urban areas, which complemented the smaller rise for singles – the latter grew 4.2K (7.5%) to 60.4K. Rural starts, […]

OPINION: The last two monthly declines in the Composite index are mostly due to Toronto (top chart), but there are signs that the downward pressure on prices in that city is fading. For instance, its unsmoothed index (see note on methodology next page) fell 0.7% in October after declining 3.7% in August and 2.1% in […]

OPINION: Housing starts were better than consensus expectations in October. Following a drop in September, Canadian residential construction increased and continued to perpetuate a level that is higher than demographic needs (estimated to be around 190K). Starts in the Toronto market dropped over 20% after a 34% drop the prior month. A more normal level of the active listings to sales […]

Affordability worsened for a ninth quarter in a row in Q3, the longest run in three decades. It’s worth noting that the Q3 deterioration – the most acute in 9 quarters – was exacerbated by the impact of higher mortgage rates resulting from Bank of Canada summer rate hikes (top chart). At the national level, […]

OPINION: September’s decline of the national composite HPI is the largest in seven years (top chart), due to the fall of Toronto’s index. The Toronto’s unsmoothed index (see note on methodology next page), has shrunk in each of the last three months, for a cumulative loss of 7.5% (middle chart). Many might worry about the […]