Reports

The strong performance of the Teranet-National Bank HPI reflects two factors: the intense activity on the home resale market due to the catch-up of sales that would have taken place last spring were it not for Covid-19 and tight market conditions in Quebec, Ontario and the Maritimes Provinces (See our Housing Market Monitor). That being said, a catch-up of sales does not necessary apply to all types of dwellings. This is obvious in Toronto, where the rise in sales was mostly concentrated in dwellings other than apartments (mostly detached, semi-detached and townhouses) outside downtown. At the opposite, the recent trend in apartment sales remained weak. As for Montreal, Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Boards reported a very significant increase in active listings for condominiums on the Island of Montreal, in contrast with the other geographic areas particularly for single family homes. In both cities, a deceleration of downtown apartment prices may be underway. Indeed, it might have started to appear in the Teranet-National Bank HPI for both metropolitan areas, when we look at unsmoothed (raw) indices for apartments and other types of dwellings. In September, the HPI for apartments departed from the upward trend of the HPI for other dwellings for both CMAs. The situation deserves attention over the coming months.

October 2020

The Composite index of resale home prices continued to rise in August. Indeed, 10 of the 11 markets were showing an increase in the month with the exception being a flat print in Calgary. The increases in August were consistent with conditions present in the home resale market. Looking at the active-listings-to-sales ratio as published by CREA, half of the provinces were solidly a “sellers’ market” with B.C. and Manitoba very close to showing that same status. This was the result of a new record level of home sales at the national level. The underlying data for the Composite House Price Index was consistent with the sharp rebound in activity. Indeed, the Teranet-National Bank HPI uses a sales-pair methodology to track home prices and the latter were down a mere 1.3% from a year earlier, in sharp contrast after three months of 12-month declines exceeding 20%. It must be said that there was a lot of catching up to be done given the pent-up demand from months of confinement. What’s more, mortgage interest rates have reached a record low and are an additional incentive for those looking for a property. When we seasonally adjust the unsmoothed composite index, August would be up a significant 1.7% from July, the highest monthly change in the last 40 months. Nonetheless, the housing market is facing several challenges in the months ahead. The tapering of income assistance programs in a still-depressed labour market combined with weaker immigration flows should translate into headwinds for housing demand.

September 2020

Housing affordability in Canada`s large urban centres improved in the second quarter of 2020 after having deteriorated in the two prior quarters. Higher incomes helped in Q2 but the largest portion of the improvement came in the form of lower interest rates. Indeed, the latter declined 19 basis points in the quarter, reflecting the easing from the central bank. Combined, income and mortgage rates were more than enough to offset the increase in home prices. Still, the decline in interest rates on a quarterly average basis does not completely reflect the change in 5-year mortgage rates since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The February to June decline in mortgage interest rates was a much more significant 41 basis points. Looking ahead, the preliminary data for rates shows additional improvements in the third quarter of the year (cumulatively they are down over 70 bps). While we expect this to help affordability, home prices should remain resilient based on the latest resale market data showing record sales volumes. Homebuyers have rushed back to the market after having delayed purchases and are now being offered record-low interest rates. Once pent-up demand is exhausted, the Canadian housing market will still have to face high levels of unemployment and reduced household formation due to lower immigration.

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As the Canadian real estate market continues to evolve and expand, we aim to provide you with data that gives you a better picture of the national market. In order to do so, we are pleased to announce as of this month’s release, we have expanded our data set for the 26 CMAs to now include data from 6 additional CMAs: Lethbridge (AB), Bellville (ON), Trois-Rivières (QC), Sherbrooke (QC), Saint John (NB) and Moncton (NB). Make sure to check out this new and improved data offering and compare the monthly changes between any six of the new and current CMAs.

The progression in the Composite index last month was the lowest for a month of July in 15 years. This marks a second month of signs that the economic lockdown had an impact on slowing activity in the housing market. It should be noted that the official Teranet-National Bank House Price Index is smoothed using a 3-month moving average and employs land registry data. This means that it currently reflects home price evolution while the sector was still on slow motion. The seasonally adjusted raw index for July is rather showing a 0.9% rebound following two consecutive declines, a development consistent with the strong rebound in home sales happening since April. Does this mean that the housing market will be spared from difficulties in this recession? Not so fast. Pent-up demand accumulated during confinement boosted June and July sales numbers. A look at the 5-month moving average shows that activity on the resale market was rather weak since March. In that sense, we still think that the housing market is facing some challenges. Indeed, households have not yet suffered the consequences of the current economic difficulties. Consumers have benefited from deferred debt payments, and the income assistance programs established by the various levels of government have more than offset labour market losses. The end of those programs and a still healing labour market could mean some headwinds for the housing market at some point.

August 2020

Last month’s advance in the Composite index was the lowest for a month of June since 2004. This adds to other signs already witnessed in May of a slowing of activity on the housing market due to COVID-19. For instance, the number of sales pairs from which June indexes were derived was the lowest for a month of June since 2001. As in May, a low level of sales pairs was recorded in all the 11 metropolitan areas comprised in the Composite index. Also, June marks the second monthly decline in a row of the seasonally adjusted raw Composite index. The raw index declined in June in six of the 11 metropolitan areas. True, According to CREA, overall Canadian home sales returned to a more normal level, and this should be soon reflected in land registries. But question marks still lie ahead. We expect the Canadian unemployment rate to remain elevated for a while. In this context, demand for housing may decrease due to a reduction in immigration and would-be first-time homebuyers not being able to qualify for a mortgage loan. That said, the homeownership rate is low among workers in sectors hardest hit by COVID-19.

July 2020