Reports

Every month we publish data around the activity of the national composite index, and some highlights from Canada’s major housing markets. Our data goes a level deeper, and can highlight the house price activity of neighbourhoods down to the postal code. The new monthly Neighbourhood Spotlight features will focus on this data and highlight Canadian neighbourhoods with particularly high or low index values.

It’s no surprise that one of Toronto’s neighbourhoods is experiencing high index values, as home prices in the city have continued to increase year-over-year. The index covering Downtown Toronto West recently printed an all time high of 328.51. In fact, this was the highest index value in all of Canada in the second quarter of 2019. This neighbourhood includes Dovercourt Village, Little Portugal, Brockton and Roncesvalles, or the FSAs of M6G, M6H, M6J, M6K AND M6R. This neighbourhood has seen an index increase of 8.3% in the past year, 50.9% in the past three years, and 84.6% in the past five years.

In a recent study about the average prices of condos and homes in Toronto neighbourhoods, Zoocasa reported that Roncesvalles, also known as Toronto’s Little Poland, has been a good neighbourhood to invest in as condo prices here have increased 71% over the past five years. The average price of a condo in Roncesvalles is now around $650,000 which still makes it more affordable compared to other Toronto neighbourhoods. Roncesvalles is home to lots of restaurants, with close access to the Entertainment District and Financial District downtown, which could explain why the neighbourhood has become more popular and experienced a significant increase in the price of condos.

To learn more about how you can gain greater insights through our neighhourhood sub-indices contact Michael Pertsis at michael.pertsis@bnc.ca or Kan Zhu kan.zhu@teranet.ca today.

The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.6% over the last 12 months.
However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI has been
depressed by 12 consecutive months without a rise in Vancouver’s index, which
dropped a cumulative 6.6%. Other Western metropolitan areas (Victoria, Calgary,
Edmonton, and Winnipeg) also contributed to slow the national HPI. At the opposite,
annual growth has been decent in most of the regions located in the central and
eastern part of the country (left chart). That being said, home sales in August were up
55% from March in Vancouver, where market conditions went from “favorable to
buyers” to “balanced” (right chart). Over that period, home sales rose 19% in Calgary
and 12% in Edmonton. These improvements, if sustained, will sooner or later help limit
home-price deflation in this region.

September 2019

Each month we share data on 11 indices that form the Composite 11 Index. The data from Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec and Halifax are all weighted to create this combined national index. The Composite 11 is updated on our website and shared with subscribers via newsletter at 8:30 a.m. each month on the release date. This public data allows you to dive into historical house price activity to see what’s happened month-over-month in Canada’s major housing markets.

In addition to this public data, we also offer a subscription solution that delivers the data from each of the 11 indices from the Composite 11 as well as the monthly and historical files covering 14 additional Canadian CMAs in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and Nova Scotia. The most recent index values from these CMAs are available publically on our website, and can be used to compare the monthly changes between any six of the 25 CMAs. The subscription solution also includes the quarterly Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Sub-Indices, which reports on price changes in specific regions, markets and neighbourhoods across Canada by property type.  

To sign-up for our monthly newsletter and receive the Composite 11 Index data when economists do, click here. If you’d like to receive more information about the subscriptions services, please contact Michael Pertsis at michael.pertsis@bnc.ca or Kan Zhu at kan.zhu@terant.ca.  

The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.4% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI has been depressed by Vancouver’s index loss of 6.2% during this period, corresponding to a 12-month string without a gain. Other Western metropolitan areas (Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg) also contributed to slow the national HPI. At the opposite, annual index growth has been decent in most of the six regions located in the central and eastern part of the country. The fact that the national HPI registered gains over the last three months does not mean that the market has turned the corner. Indeed, the three latest rises were weak compared to the 21-year average for those months. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in these months this year. That being said, the recent rebound in home sales across Canada was also felt in the Western part of the country. This should help limit home-price deflation in this region.

August 2019

Affordability improved in Q2 by the most since 2009 as measured by the urban composite index. All the observed markets registered an amelioration in the quarter (left chart). The most significant factor to this development was the decline in  mortgage rates. Indeed, the free-fall in financings costs was the most substantial since 2010Q3. This combined with a healthy labour market producing income growth on the scale of 1.7% in the quarter and home prices declining 1.0% meant that all inputs contributed to the improvement in housing affordability. Vancouver experienced the largest progression in affordability among urban markets in Q2. Toronto essentially mirrored the situation in Vancouver with a large improvement in the non-condo market and some progress also in the condo market. The decline in mortgage rates combined with a robust labour market reduced the risk of a correction in home prices in the coming months. That being said, there are still some headwinds limiting upside on home prices. Despite the recent progress in Vancouver and Toronto, these markets remain unaffordable on a historical basis (right chart). Moreover, while the contractual mortgage rate declined 68 basis points since last December, the qualifying rate declined only 15 basis points meaning that most potential new buyers excluded by B-20 measures still are.

Read research report

The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.5% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. Moreover, the fact that monthly gains are reported for May and June does not mean that the market recently turned the corner. These two months typically register the strongest growth rates in a year. Indeed, the two latest rises were among the weakest in history for months of May and June. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in both months this year. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI was dragged down by 12-month home price declines in Western Canada metropolitan areas (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg) and a tiny increase in Victoria. In Central Canada and in the East, home price growth ranges from decent to strong. This is consistent with the state of home resale markets. For example, the Vancouver market turned favorable to buyers at the end of last year, while the Toronto market remained balanced and Montreal’s market has never been this tight since 2005. That being said, a rebound in home sales recently occurred in Canada which was also felt in the largest Western metropolitan areas. This should help limit home-price deflation in these areas.

July 2019