Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™

The composite index rose by 0.6% in November, the fifth consecutive monthly increase and a larger rise than the previous month’s 0.4%. As a result, prices have grown by a cumulative 2.2% since the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut in June, but still remain 1.0% below their April 2022 peak. This acceleration in prices comes at a time when the effects of the monetary easing cycle are beginning to be felt more strongly in the housing market. Indeed, the number of transactions on the resale market continued to rise in November after a jump in October, thanks in particular to a reduction in fixed mortgage interest rates since the summer and the accelerating pace of the central bank’s policy rate cuts in its last two announcements. As a result, conditions on the resale market have tightened further in recent months, with a seller’s market synonymous with upward price support. With the central bank expected to continue easing monetary policy over the coming months to return to neutral territory, and with the extension of amortization to 30 years for insured mortgages in December, the real estate market could maintain its momentum in the coming months, provided the deterioration in the labour market remains limited. However, given affordability challenges and much slower population growth, the pace of house price appreciation should be moderate.

December 2024