News and Press Releases

The Teranet-National Bank HPI jumped 2.8% in May to an all-time high. It was the 19th straight monthly increase and the largest ever since the index began in 1999. Its recent vigour coincides with historically high numbers of home sales in most regions of Canada, combined with limited supply. Market conditions accordingly remain very much in favour of sellers and price growth. After seasonal adjustment the monthly jump of the unsmoothed HPI was slightly smaller at 2.1%, bringing the unsmoothed index to a spectacular cumulative gain of 17.0% since last June. Home price growth remained rapid in the great majority of Canadian cities: June prices were up 10% or more from a year earlier in an unprecedented 90% of the 32 urban markets surveyed and by 30% or more in 42% of those markets. The 12-month price growth for single-family homes continues to outpace that of the condo segment. The latter continues to lag as buyer preferences shift from small dwellings in city centres to larger homes in the suburbs. This divergence may not last long, as affordability has decreased in the non-condo segment.

June 2021

The Teranet-National Bank HPI jumped 2.4% in April to a new all-time high. This marks 18 straight monthly increases. Its recent vigour coincides with historically high numbers of home sales in most regions of Canada, coupled with limited supply. As such, market conditions remain very much in favour of sellers and consequently price growth. After seasonal adjustment the monthly jump of the unsmoothed HPI was slightly weaker – 2.0%, bringing the unsmoothed index to a whopping cumulative gain of 14.3% since last June (left chart). The rapid pace of home price growth continues in the great majority of large Canadian cities, with prices up 10% or more from a year earlier in an unprecedented 87% of the 32 urban markets surveyed (right chart). It should be noted that annual price growth for single-family homes continues to outpace the condo segment. The latter continues to lag as the shift of preferences has tilted buyers from small dwellings in city centers to larger homes in the suburbs. This divergence may not last for long as mortgage interest rates have increased, and affordability has deteriorated in the non-condo segment (link).

May 2021

The Teranet-National Bank HPI jumped 1.5% to a new high in March, its 17th straight monthly rise. Its recent vigour coincides with historically high numbers of home sales in most regions of Canada, coupled with limited supply. The monthly jump of the unsmoothed HPI was even bigger – 2.7%, the most of any month since July 2006, taking the unsmoothed index to a cumulative rise of 11.9% since last June. The rapid rise of home prices continues in the great majority of large Canadian cities, with prices up 10% or more from a year earlier in an unprecedented 81% of the 32 urban markets surveyed. However, the magnitude of the price rise varies with category of dwelling. In the main metropolitan markets the rise was much smaller for the condo segment than for single-family homes. Among the reasons for the difference is a shift of preferences away from small dwellings in city centres toward larger homes in suburbs.

April 2021

The Teranet-National Bank HPI rose to a new high in February. Its 0.5% gain from January was its 16th consecutive monthly rise. This recent vigour coincides with historically high numbers of home sales in most regions of Canada, coupled with limited supply. As a result, prices were up 10% or more from a year earlier in an unprecedented 77% of the 32 urban markets covered. However, the magnitude of the price rise varies with the category of dwelling. In the largest metropolitan markets, the rise was much smaller for the condo segment than for single-family homes. Among the reasons for this difference is a shift of preferences away from small dwellings in city centres toward larger homes in suburbs. Apart from the pandemic factor, there is reason to believe the condo segment is feeling the effect of low immigration inflows and persistently high unemployment among young workers.

March 2021

The Teranet-National Bank HPI rose 0.3% in January, reaching an all-time high. The new record coincides with a historically high volume of home sales in most regions of Canada, coupled with limited supply. The seasonally adjusted unsmoothed Composite HPI has surged 7.8% since July. However, the uptrend of home prices does not encompass all categories of dwellings. In Toronto, the rise in sales volume was concentrated in single-family dwellings outside the downtown area, and did not take in condos. In the Greater Montreal market, a very large rise in condo listings on Montreal Island contrasts sharply with the peripheral areas of that market. In the Greater Vancouver and Victoria markets, as in Toronto and Montreal, price increases for single-family homes have significantly outpaced those for condos. Apart from a shift in preference induced by the pandemic, there is reason to believe the condo segment is affected by low immigration inflows and a persistently high unemployment rate among young workers.

February 2021

The Teranet-National Bank HPI rose 0.6% to a new high in December. This record coincides with a historically high volume of home sales in most regions of Canada coupled with limited supply. The seasonally adjust unsmoothed Composite HPI has surged 6.8% since July. However, December was the second consecutive month in which index growth was slower than the month before. Moreover, the uptrend of prices did not apply to all categories of dwellings. In Toronto, the rise in sales volume was concentrated in single-family dwellings outside the downtown, not in condos. In the Greater Montreal market, a very large rise in condo listings on Montreal Island contrasted sharply with the peripheral areas of that market. In Greater Vancouver and Victoria, price increases for single-family homes also far outpaced those for condos. Apart from a shift in preference induced by the pandemic, there is reason to think the condo segment is affected by low immigration inflows and a still-high unemployment rate among young workers.

Read the report

Teranet-National Bank Composite HPI registered a record monthly gain for the month of November, as it did in October. This performance coincides with the persistence of historically high home sales in many regions in Canada in conjunction with a low supply. Since July, the seasonally adjusted unsmoothed Composite HPI surged 6.3%. That being said, the upward trend in Canadian home prices does not apply
everywhere to all categories of dwellings. In Toronto, the rise in sales was mostly concentrated outside downtown in ground-level dwellings, at the expense of apartments. As for Greater Montreal, the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Boards reported a very significant increase in active listings for condominiums on the Island of Montreal, a sharp contrast with the other areas of that region. In Greater Vancouver and Victoria too, price increases of ground-level dwellings are outpacing that of apartments. The outlook for that segment of the market is most impacted by immigration flows and the still-elevated unemployment rate among young workers, that is, potential first-time home buyers.

November 2020

The strong performance of the Teranet-National Bank Composite HPI over the last three months coincides with very strong levels of home sales nationwide. In October, it became clear that the recent trend in sales more than made up for the spring lethargy caused by Covid-19. Furthermore, sales were at historically high levels lately in most regions in Canada. This has translated into an unprecedented diffusion of monthly home price gains over the last three months in the 31 CMAs for which a Teranet-National Bank HPI is produced. That being said, the upward trend in home prices does not apply everywhere to all categories of dwellings. In Toronto, the rise in sales was mostly concentrated outside downtown in dwellings other than apartments (mostly detached, semi-detached and townhouses). On the opposite side, the recent trend in apartment sales remained weak. As for the Greater Montreal, Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Boards reported a very significant increase in active listings for condominiums on the Island of Montreal, a sharp contrast with the other areas of that region. In fact, for both Toronto and Montreal, the Teranet-National Bank unsmoothed HPI for apartments has clearly decelerated over the last two months compared to other dwellings.

November 2020

The strong performance of the Teranet-National Bank HPI reflects two factors: the intense activity on the home resale market due to the catch-up of sales that would have taken place last spring were it not for Covid-19 and tight market conditions in Quebec, Ontario and the Maritimes Provinces (See our Housing Market Monitor). That being said, a catch-up of sales does not necessary apply to all types of dwellings. This is obvious in Toronto, where the rise in sales was mostly concentrated in dwellings other than apartments (mostly detached, semi-detached and townhouses) outside downtown. At the opposite, the recent trend in apartment sales remained weak. As for Montreal, Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Boards reported a very significant increase in active listings for condominiums on the Island of Montreal, in contrast with the other geographic areas particularly for single family homes. In both cities, a deceleration of downtown apartment prices may be underway. Indeed, it might have started to appear in the Teranet-National Bank HPI for both metropolitan areas, when we look at unsmoothed (raw) indices for apartments and other types of dwellings. In September, the HPI for apartments departed from the upward trend of the HPI for other dwellings for both CMAs. The situation deserves attention over the coming months.

October 2020

The Composite index of resale home prices continued to rise in August. Indeed, 10 of the 11 markets were showing an increase in the month with the exception being a flat print in Calgary. The increases in August were consistent with conditions present in the home resale market. Looking at the active-listings-to-sales ratio as published by CREA, half of the provinces were solidly a “sellers’ market” with B.C. and Manitoba very close to showing that same status. This was the result of a new record level of home sales at the national level. The underlying data for the Composite House Price Index was consistent with the sharp rebound in activity. Indeed, the Teranet-National Bank HPI uses a sales-pair methodology to track home prices and the latter were down a mere 1.3% from a year earlier, in sharp contrast after three months of 12-month declines exceeding 20%. It must be said that there was a lot of catching up to be done given the pent-up demand from months of confinement. What’s more, mortgage interest rates have reached a record low and are an additional incentive for those looking for a property. When we seasonally adjust the unsmoothed composite index, August would be up a significant 1.7% from July, the highest monthly change in the last 40 months. Nonetheless, the housing market is facing several challenges in the months ahead. The tapering of income assistance programs in a still-depressed labour market combined with weaker immigration flows should translate into headwinds for housing demand.

September 2020