Post Category: News and Press Releases
November 19, 2019
Vancouver’s HPI finally up in October

The fact that the national HPI began the fourth quarter with a dip is not troublesome. The fourth quarter is typically a lethargic period for the index. Indeed, last month’s decline was smaller than the average of the last ten Octobers. We do not think that October heralds a downward trend on the national home resale market. We rather welcome the first monthly rise of Vancouver’s index in 15 months. This is consistent with the strong revival of Vancouver home sales since August. On the other hand, October ended a run of six monthly rises in Toronto and Hamilton. Same story for the five-months runs of Montreal and Winnipeg. But there are no reasons to believe that October’s drops in these metropolitan areas are the start of a trend. Judging from the most recent data, the resale market remains balanced in Toronto and Winnipeg, and favorable to sellers in Montreal and Hamilton.

November 2019

Post Category: News and Press Releases
October 18, 2019
National HPI: An upward underlying trend arises

The fact that the national HPI has grown each month from May to September is not surprising. Almost all of the increase of a HPI during a year typically takes place over these months where the activity on the home resale market is the most intense. The underlying trend is better revealed when the HPI is seasonally adjusted. After that adjustment, the national HPI showed a downward trend from February to July, but the trend turned upward in August and September (left chart). That being said, this situation was not homogeneous among all the component regions. Seasonally adjusted or not, home prices continue to decline in Vancouver. But home sales in Vancouver have recovered strongly since their March trough (right chart). Over the period, conditions on the home resale market turned from “favorable to buyers” to “balanced”. This suggests that home price deflation should fade over the next few months in Vancouver.

October 2019

Post Category: News and Press Releases
September 25, 2019
Neighbourhood Spotlight: Downtown Toronto West

Every month we publish data around the activity of the national composite index, and some highlights from Canada’s major housing markets. Our data goes a level deeper, and can highlight the house price activity of neighbourhoods down to the postal code. The new monthly Neighbourhood Spotlight features will focus on this data and highlight Canadian neighbourhoods with particularly high or low index values.

It’s no surprise that one of Toronto’s neighbourhoods is experiencing high index values, as home prices in the city have continued to increase year-over-year. The index covering Downtown Toronto West recently printed an all time high of 328.51. In fact, this was the highest index value in all of Canada in the second quarter of 2019. This neighbourhood includes Dovercourt Village, Little Portugal, Brockton and Roncesvalles, or the FSAs of M6G, M6H, M6J, M6K AND M6R. This neighbourhood has seen an index increase of 8.3% in the past year, 50.9% in the past three years, and 84.6% in the past five years.

In a recent study about the average prices of condos and homes in Toronto neighbourhoods, Zoocasa reported that Roncesvalles, also known as Toronto’s Little Poland, has been a good neighbourhood to invest in as condo prices here have increased 71% over the past five years. The average price of a condo in Roncesvalles is now around $650,000 which still makes it more affordable compared to other Toronto neighbourhoods. Roncesvalles is home to lots of restaurants, with close access to the Entertainment District and Financial District downtown, which could explain why the neighbourhood has become more popular and experienced a significant increase in the price of condos.

To learn more about how you can gain greater insights through our neighhourhood sub-indices contact Michael Pertsis at michael.pertsis@bnc.ca or Kan Zhu kan.zhu@teranet.ca today.

Post Category: News and Press Releases
September 19, 2019
National house price index rises again in August

The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.6% over the last 12 months.
However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI has been
depressed by 12 consecutive months without a rise in Vancouver’s index, which
dropped a cumulative 6.6%. Other Western metropolitan areas (Victoria, Calgary,
Edmonton, and Winnipeg) also contributed to slow the national HPI. At the opposite,
annual growth has been decent in most of the regions located in the central and
eastern part of the country (left chart). That being said, home sales in August were up
55% from March in Vancouver, where market conditions went from “favorable to
buyers” to “balanced” (right chart). Over that period, home sales rose 19% in Calgary
and 12% in Edmonton. These improvements, if sustained, will sooner or later help limit
home-price deflation in this region.

September 2019

Post Category: News and Press Releases
September 16, 2019
What is the difference between the HPI Composite 11 Index and the 25 Canadian CMAs?

Each month we share data on 11 indices that form the Composite 11 Index. The data from Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec and Halifax are all weighted to create this combined national index. The Composite 11 is updated on our website and shared with subscribers via newsletter at 8:30 a.m. each month on the release date. This public data allows you to dive into historical house price activity to see what’s happened month-over-month in Canada’s major housing markets.

In addition to this public data, we also offer a subscription solution that delivers the data from each of the 11 indices from the Composite 11 as well as the monthly and historical files covering 14 additional Canadian CMAs in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and Nova Scotia. The most recent index values from these CMAs are available publically on our website, and can be used to compare the monthly changes between any six of the 25 CMAs. The subscription solution also includes the quarterly Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Sub-Indices, which reports on price changes in specific regions, markets and neighbourhoods across Canada by property type.  

To sign-up for our monthly newsletter and receive the Composite 11 Index data when economists do, click here. If you’d like to receive more information about the subscriptions services, please contact Michael Pertsis at michael.pertsis@bnc.ca or Kan Zhu at kan.zhu@terant.ca.  

Post Category: News and Press Releases
August 20, 2019
Home price deflation about to ebb in Western Canada?

The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.4% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI has been depressed by Vancouver’s index loss of 6.2% during this period, corresponding to a 12-month string without a gain. Other Western metropolitan areas (Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg) also contributed to slow the national HPI. At the opposite, annual index growth has been decent in most of the six regions located in the central and eastern part of the country. The fact that the national HPI registered gains over the last three months does not mean that the market has turned the corner. Indeed, the three latest rises were weak compared to the 21-year average for those months. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in these months this year. That being said, the recent rebound in home sales across Canada was also felt in the Western part of the country. This should help limit home-price deflation in this region.

August 2019

Post Category: News and Press Releases
July 18, 2019
Almost no annual growth for national HPI

The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.5% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. Moreover, the fact that monthly gains are reported for May and June does not mean that the market recently turned the corner. These two months typically register the strongest growth rates in a year. Indeed, the two latest rises were among the weakest in history for months of May and June. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in both months this year. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI was dragged down by 12-month home price declines in Western Canada metropolitan areas (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg) and a tiny increase in Victoria. In Central Canada and in the East, home price growth ranges from decent to strong. This is consistent with the state of home resale markets. For example, the Vancouver market turned favorable to buyers at the end of last year, while the Toronto market remained balanced and Montreal’s market has never been this tight since 2005. That being said, a rebound in home sales recently occurred in Canada which was also felt in the largest Western metropolitan areas. This should help limit home-price deflation in these areas.

July 2019

Post Category: News and Press Releases
June 19, 2019
The national HPI grew at its slowest annual pace in this cycle

One should not rejoice about the first rise in home prices in seven months as May is
historically the second strongest month of the year. In effect, the 0.5% increase
represents the weakest performance on record for a month of May. As a result, the
annual increase moderated to 0.7%, the lowest since the recession (see left chart). While
a combination of stress testing measures, foreign buyer’s taxes and earlier increases in
mortgage rates have contributed to the slowdown, recent data shows that the Canadian
housing market is stabilizing. Home sales increased for a third month in a row in May,
rebounding close to their past ten year average, a development which was made possible
thanks to a booming labour market and a plunge in mortgage rates. In Toronto, both
condos and other dwellings prices showed pullbacks in May but resale market conditions
(see right chart) are not suggestive of a significant deterioration in the coming months
especially since the GTA created a whopping 92K jobs so far this year. The Vancouver
market showed the weakest performance on an annual basis among covered markets (-
4.1%, y/y) but its job market is also firing on all cylinders in 2019 a development that
could have contributed to the strong rebound in resales observed in May (+24%).

June 2019

 

Post Category: News and Press Releases
May 14, 2019
Is the resale market stabilizing?

While the Composite Teranet-National Bank HPI dropped again in April, there are signs of stabilization. April’s decline in the Composite index is the smallest in months. The cumulative decline over this seven-month stretch is only 1.8%, a moderate loss compared to the 2008-2009 recession, and even compared to shorter sequences of drops that occurred since then (left chart). The moderation of the recent price decline at the national level is partly due to Toronto, where the index edged down only 0.2% over that seven-month period. The resilience of the home resale market in the largest urban area in Canada is due to the performance of the condo segment, where the index was up 2.1% over the period (right chart). Judging from the active-listings-to-sales ratio, market conditions on the condo market have been tight over the last three years, suggesting that the upward trend in condo prices in Toronto is unlikely to be interrupted in the near future.

May 2019

Post Category: News and Press Releases
April 12, 2019
The national HPI drops for a sixth month in a row

In March, the downward trend in home prices continued with the Composite Teranet-National Bank HPI slipping for a sixth month in a row, a first in six years. Moreover, in 20 years of history, this is the first time that the Composite HPI drops in a month of March outside a recession. A few months ago, the home price weakness was mainly noticeable in the westernmost metropolitan areas. Judging from the six-month change in the index, it now extends to nine of the 11 regions comprising the Composite index, the exceptions being Montreal and Halifax. If we also consider 14 other metropolitan regions for which a Teranet-National Bank HPI is computed (although not included in the Composite), we have a price increase in only six of the 25 metropolitan regions considered. This is one of the lowest diffusion of 6-month price gains in March over the history of the index. Home prices are adjusting to the recent rise in interest rates and stricter mortgage qualification rules. But price weakness does not mean collapse. In Toronto, Canada’s largest real estate market, apartment prices have been up for 17 consecutive months, while prices of other types of dwellings declined only 1.4% over the last 6 months. In Vancouver, the most expensive market, employment growing 2.9% in Q1 on a y/y basis should limit further home price declines.

April 2019

For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Kan Zhu
Leader, Data & Advisory Solutions
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 416-360-8863 x 2270
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416.869.7124
Email: