Post Category: News and Economic Reports
May 17, 2024
Price stabilize in April as resale market remains sluggish

Following growth in the previous two months in the wake of a slight upturn in the real estate market activity at the start of winter, house prices in Canada’s major urban centres remained unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis from March to April. This stabilization comes as resale market activity remains sluggish in the spring, with first-time homebuyers possibly on the sidelines awaiting possible interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada by summer. Weakness is particularly noticeable in the country’s largest city, Toronto, where the job market has deteriorated significantly in recent months (unemployment rate now 7.9% vs. 5.6% a year earlier). Although record demographic growth, a shortage of housing supply, more favourable fixed mortgage rates than last year and possible cuts in the policy rate will continue to support the Canadian real estate market in the months ahead, we are cautiously optimistic about the extent of an eventual recovery in the housing market in the months ahead and its potential impact on prices. Indeed, many uncertainties remain, including the risk of a further deterioration in the labour market, particularly among young people who are facing the worst affordability conditions in decades.

May 2024

Post Category: Monthly Reports
May 17, 2024
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index remains stable in April

MONTH-OVER-MONTH After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, remained stable from March to April, after increasing in the previous two months. In April, seven of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded increases: Edmonton (+2.0%), Montreal (+1.9%), Calgary (+1.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.5%), Vancouver […]

Post Category: Monthly Reports
April 17, 2024
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index continues to rise in March

MONTH-OVER-MONTH After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose by 0.2% from February to March, the second consecutive monthly increase. In March, four of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded growth: Vancouver (+2.7%), Edmonton (+2.0%), Calgary (+1.8%) and Quebec City (+1.6%). […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
April 17, 2024
Prices continued to rise slightly in March

After returning to growth territory in February, the Teranet-National Bank Composite Index™ continued to rise in March, with a small gain of 0.2% on the previous month. This increase in home prices comes at a time when the housing market has regained strength since November, buoyed in particular by exceptional demographic growth, slightly more advantageous fixed mortgage interest rates and the anticipation of policy rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Although these factors will continue to support the real estate market in the months ahead, we are cautiously optimistic about a significant recovery in the housing market in the coming months and stronger price growth. Indeed, many uncertainties remain, including a potential further deterioration in the labour market for young people, who are facing the worst affordability conditions in decades.

April 2024

Post Category: Monthly Reports
March 19, 2024
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index back on the rise in Febuary

MONTH-OVER-MONTH After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose by 0.2% from January to February, the first increase after four consecutive monthly decreases. In February, five of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded growth: Calgary (+1.6%), Victoria (+1.4%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.2%), Toronto […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
March 19, 2024
Prices are back on the rise in February

After contracting by 1.5% over the previous five months, the Teranet-National Bank Composite IndexTM finally returned to growth in February, rising by 0.2% compared with the previous month. This increase in property prices comes at a time when the housing market regained strength between November and January, buoyed by exceptional demographic growth, more advantageous fixed mortgage interest rates and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. However, it remains to be seen whether this is the start of an upward trend. On the one hand, the lack of housing supply on the market will continue to support prices, but the persistent affordability challenges should limit households’ ability to pay and thus the increase in property values. It appears that the resale market started to slip again in February, while bond yields have risen in recent weeks due to less favourable news on inflation, which is delaying potential cuts in the overnight rate. As a result, we expect home prices to move sideways in the short term.

March 2024

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
February 20, 2024
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index – Canada: Prices are still declining, but for how long?

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index continued its correction for a fourth consecutive month in January, with prices down 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis compared with December. It should be noted, however, that the drop in the composite index in January was due solely to lower prices in two major cities where affordability remains a major issue, namely Vancouver and Toronto. As a result, house prices across the country are now 3.7% below their April 2022 peak. However, renewed activity in the resale market raises the question of whether this weakness will persist. This rebound in transactions is taking place against a backdrop of strong demand due to exceptional demographic growth and the reduction in mortgage interest rates since October. Moreover, in a context where the lack of housing supply remains problematic, the end of Bank of Canada rate hikes and potential rate cuts have reduced uncertainty and offered a window of opportunity to some buyers. It remains to be seen whether this upturn will be long-lasting, given that we expect the labour market to experience further difficulties later this year.

February 2024

Post Category: Monthly Reports
February 20, 2024
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index continues to decline in January

MONTH-OVER-MONTH After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, declined by 0.3% from December to January, the fourth consecutive monthly decrease. However, this decline was due to contractions in only two of the eleven cities included in the index: Vancouver (-2.0%) and Toronto (-0.3%). […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
January 18, 2024
House prices end the year on a downward trend

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index™ continued its correction for a third consecutive month in December, with prices down 0.5% compared to November in a context where the number of transactions on the resale market continues to be weak, despite a rebound during the month. Indeed, persistent affordability issues (despite the recent drop in fixed mortgage rates), combined with a less buoyant job market, have contributed to the decline in property prices. Despite a less vigorous economy, we are not yet witnessing a wave of additional supply on the real estate market. In fact, active listings declined in December, and the number of months of inventory fell from 4.2 in November to 3.8 during the month, helping to limit the fall in prices. For the months ahead, prices should continue to decline despite the support of historical population growth and the shortage of housing supply, as the deterioration in the labour market is set to continue. We expect the composite index to return close to its early 2023 low by late spring, with a cumulative decline of around 8% from its April 2022 peak. For their part, the interest rate cuts expected to begin in Q2 should set the stage for market stabilization in the second half of the year.

January 2024

Post Category: Monthly Reports
January 18, 2024
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index ends the year down

MONTH-OVER-MONTH After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, declined by 0.5% from November to December, the third consecutive monthly decrease. In December, four of the 11 CMAs included in the index experienced decreases: Victoria (-3.9%), Vancouver (-1.5%), Toronto (-0.8%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.3%). Conversely, […]