Post Category: News and Economic Reports
February 20, 2024
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index – Canada: Prices are still declining, but for how long?

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index continued its correction for a fourth consecutive month in January, with prices down 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis compared with December. It should be noted, however, that the drop in the composite index in January was due solely to lower prices in two major cities where affordability remains a major issue, namely Vancouver and Toronto. As a result, house prices across the country are now 3.7% below their April 2022 peak. However, renewed activity in the resale market raises the question of whether this weakness will persist. This rebound in transactions is taking place against a backdrop of strong demand due to exceptional demographic growth and the reduction in mortgage interest rates since October. Moreover, in a context where the lack of housing supply remains problematic, the end of Bank of Canada rate hikes and potential rate cuts have reduced uncertainty and offered a window of opportunity to some buyers. It remains to be seen whether this upturn will be long-lasting, given that we expect the labour market to experience further difficulties later this year.

February 2024

Post Category: Monthly Reports
February 20, 2024
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index continues to decline in January

MONTH-OVER-MONTH After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, declined by 0.3% from December to January, the fourth consecutive monthly decrease. However, this decline was due to contractions in only two of the eleven cities included in the index: Vancouver (-2.0%) and Toronto (-0.3%). […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
January 18, 2024
House prices end the year on a downward trend

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index™ continued its correction for a third consecutive month in December, with prices down 0.5% compared to November in a context where the number of transactions on the resale market continues to be weak, despite a rebound during the month. Indeed, persistent affordability issues (despite the recent drop in fixed mortgage rates), combined with a less buoyant job market, have contributed to the decline in property prices. Despite a less vigorous economy, we are not yet witnessing a wave of additional supply on the real estate market. In fact, active listings declined in December, and the number of months of inventory fell from 4.2 in November to 3.8 during the month, helping to limit the fall in prices. For the months ahead, prices should continue to decline despite the support of historical population growth and the shortage of housing supply, as the deterioration in the labour market is set to continue. We expect the composite index to return close to its early 2023 low by late spring, with a cumulative decline of around 8% from its April 2022 peak. For their part, the interest rate cuts expected to begin in Q2 should set the stage for market stabilization in the second half of the year.

January 2024

Post Category: Monthly Reports
January 18, 2024
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index ends the year down

MONTH-OVER-MONTH After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, declined by 0.5% from November to December, the third consecutive monthly decrease. In December, four of the 11 CMAs included in the index experienced decreases: Victoria (-3.9%), Vancouver (-1.5%), Toronto (-0.8%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.3%). Conversely, […]

Post Category: Monthly Reports
December 19, 2023
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index continues its correction in November

MONTH-OVER-MONTH After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, declined by 0.5% from October to November, the second consecutive monthly decrease. In November, five of the 11 CMAs included in the index experienced decreases: Montreal (-2.2% after a 3.7% rise the previous month), Hamilton […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
December 19, 2023
No gift for homeowners, prices will continue to fall

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index continued its correction for a second consecutive month in November, with prices down 0.5% compared to October in a context where the resale market continues to lose momentum. Indeed, persistent affordability issues (despite the recent drop in long-term fixed mortgage rates), combined with a less buoyant job market, have contributed to the slowdown in the real estate market. This less favourable economic backdrop has certainly undermined consumer confidence, with consumers more pessimistic about the real estate market than at any time in the past 20 years. Indeed, the net proportion of consumers believing that now is a good time to make a major purchase (such as a property or car) is even lower than at the worst of the pandemic. Over the coming months, prices will continue to fall, despite the support of historical demographic growth and the shortage of housing supply. We expect the composite index to reach its trough set at the beginning of the year again by spring 2024, with a cumulative decline of 8% from its April 2022 peak. However, if the moderation in the job market remains limited and overnight rate cuts actually take place in early 2024, the coming spring could represent a good window of opportunity for some buyers and help stabilize prices.

December 2023

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
December 13, 2023
Upcoming Teranet-National Bank HPI Composite 11 Methodological Changes

To provide a national index that is even more consistent with activity in Canada’s real estate market, we will be adjusting our calculation methodology.

Currently, the National Composite index is calculated as a weighted average of price index levels of the eleven Census Metropolitan Area’s (“CMA”) comprising it. The weights are based on the aggregate dollar value of dwellings retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census.

Effective December 19, 2023 the following methodological changes will be in place:

  • The weights will be updated periodically to reflect changes in the aggregate dollar value of dwellings in Statistics Canada’s census. Index history from February 1999 will be divided into six reference periods corresponding to census years. Each reference period will have its own set of weights for the composite index calculation based on the most recent census data available during the period.
  • Weights will be applied to the monthly variation in the index rather than the index level.
  • Historical C11 index values will be recalculated to reflect this methodological change.

Why are we making these updates?

We want to emphasize that these methodological changes are not dramatic nor will they change the story of Canadian single-family home prices over the past 25 years. The difference in C11 between the current and new methodological approaches is minimal. We believe that the new methodology for calculating the composite index offers several advantages:

  • The country is experiencing divergent demographic growth across regions which means that the Canadian real estate market is constantly evolving. Rather than keeping the weights constant, a rebalancing of the weights of the different CMA’s included in the composite index will be carried out periodically using the latest census data. This ensures that the index is more representative of the Canadian real estate market and its variability over time.
  • The updated methodology is similar to that of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller Index in the United States, facilitating comparison between the two markets.

The Teranet and National Bank teams are here to support you and answer any questions you may have ahead of these changes. If you have any questions or concerns, please contact your account manager.

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
November 17, 2023
Canada: Home prices start to drop again in October

After rising for the past five months, the Teranet-National Bank Composite Index started to fall again in October, as property prices across the country declined by 0.4% over the month in a context where the resale market is losing momentum. Indeed, the rise in interest rates in recent months, which exacerbates affordability problems, combined with a less buoyant job market, have contributed to the slowdown in the real estate market. Indeed, market conditions have eased across the country, so that the number of months of inventory rose to 4.1 in October, a level similar to that prevailing before the pandemic, but still lower for the moment than the historical norm. What’s more, the weakness of prices in October was widespread across the country, with 58% of the 31 cities covered experiencing a sharper fall or weaker growth than the previous month. In the months ahead, prices are likely to continue to decline, while interest rates remain high and the economic context will be less favourable, representing headwinds for the sector despite the support of historical demographic growth.

November 2023

Post Category: Monthly Reports
November 17, 2023
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index down in October

MONTH-OVER-MONTH After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, declined by 0.4% from September to October, the first decrease following five consecutive monthly increases. In October, four of the 11 CMAs included in the index experienced decreases: Toronto (-1.6%), Edmonton (-1.2%), Vancouver (-1.1%) and […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
October 20, 2023
Canada: Home price rises moderate in September

In September, the Teranet-National Bank Composite Index continues to grow, so that house prices are now just 1.6% off their April 2022 peak, a clear improvement on the record 8.6% decline we saw in April 2023. However, with real estate activity slowing, price growth moderated compared to the previous month for the third consecutive month, with September’s 0.7% increase less than half that seen in August. Of the 31 cities covered in September, 71% experienced slower growth than the previous month, the most generalized slowdown since July 2022 and the second most widespread in the last nine years. Given the growing impact of policy rate hikes, the recent increase in longer-term bond rates and the less buoyant economic context, there is reason to believe that price declines could occur by the end of the year. However, they should remain limited thanks to the support of historical demographic growth and the persistent lack of housing supply.

October 2023

For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416.869.7124
Email: