Reports

After a cumulative contraction of 4.1% over the previous seven months, the Teranet–National Bank Composite Index finally stabilized in July. This stabilization comes as transactions on the resale market continued to recover for a fourth consecutive month. While sales remained below their historical average, broadly balanced market conditions at the national level helped support prices, particularly in Vancouver (+0.7%) and Toronto (0.0%), where resale market conditions strengthened. The Toronto market saw a recent rebound in sales that helped prices stabilize for a second consecutive month in July, following declines in 15 of the previous 17 months. This is particularly important for the composite index, as Toronto and Vancouver alone account for 61.1% of the composite index (Toronto: 40.3%; Vancouver: 20.8%).

Nationally, the recent rebound in transactions has likely been supported by the strong labour market performance in recent months as well as improved affordability in recent quarters. The drop in prices observed in the majority of the country’s major cities may also have encouraged some buyers to return to the market. If the recovery in sales continues, it could eventually bring price growth back into positive territory. However, several factors are expected to limit the magnitude of the increase, including ongoing trade uncertainty, persistently high fixed mortgage rates and slower population growth.

August 2026

The Teranet–National Bank Composite Index fell 0.4% in June, marking a seventh consecutive monthly decline and leaving prices 4.3% below their year-earlier level. The weakness in prices persists even as resale activity has improved for three straight months. Home sales rose 0.5% in June following stronger gains in April and May but remain -19.8% below their historical average (considering the number of households), suggesting that the recent improvement is better characterized as a recovery from depressed levels than a return to underlying strength. Moreover, Ontario accounted for the national increase in sales, but market conditions remain relatively soft in both Ontario and British Columbia given accumulated supply. This regional divide is also evident in prices: Toronto and Vancouver were down 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively, from a year earlier, while Quebec City, Winnipeg and Montreal continued to record gains.

The recent strengthening of the labour market and the improvement in affordability stemming from lower prices should support a gradual normalization in activity, particularly in Ontario. However, any price recovery is likely to remain modest and uneven. Population contraction is restraining underlying demand, mortgage rates have risen from their early-2026 lows, household appetite for major purchases remains subdued and uncertainty surrounding the CUSMA review continues to weigh on confidence. All told, we expect prices in Toronto and Vancouver to move closer to stabilization toward the end of the year, but broad-based or sustained gains remain unlikely in the near term.

July 2026

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index declined for the sixth consecutive month in May, with home prices falling 1.0% on a month-over-month basis. This cumulative decline amounts to 4.0% over the past six months and 4.3% over the past year. The continued decline in prices in May comes amid a context where transaction volumes in the resale market remain depressed relative to their historical average. That said, home sales in the resale market have rebounded over the past two months, a recovery that could continue in the coming months thanks to the recent improvement in consumer confidence and the labour market. Real estate market conditions have also tightened in several regions, although they remain relatively loose for now in Toronto and Vancouver. We therefore expect these markets to gradually stabilize over the coming months and may even see price increases by the end of the year. It turns out that prices in real terms have experienced significant corrections from their 2022 peaks in these two major markets, leading to a notable improvement in affordability. This improvement in accessibility, which has been pronounced over the past year, could be one of the factors behind the recent rebound in transactions in the resale market. However, several factors could limit the extent of this recovery and constrain price growth, including demographic decline, fixed mortgage rates that remain high and have risen sharply since February, and uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the USMCA.

June 2026

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index fell for the fifth consecutive month in April, with property prices declining by 0.7% on a month-over-month basis. This brought the cumulative price decline to 3.0% over the past five months and 4.5% over the past year. However, the price decline in April was less pronounced than the 1.0% drop recorded in March, as the resale housing market saw its first increase in transactions in six months. Nevertheless, sales levels remain particularly low, with the ratio of transactions per household nationwide still 25% below its historical average. Affordability challenges also continue to weigh on property prices, as evidenced by the fact that the largest declines over the past year were recorded in the country’s least affordable markets, while the strongest increases were observed in the most affordable cities. Despite the recent uptick in transactions in the resale market, it is still too early to speak of a sustained recovery for the housing market. Indeed, several factors continue to weigh on the residential sector, including demographic decline, a weak labour market since the start of the year, and trade and geopolitical uncertainty. The conflict in the Middle East has indeed had repercussions on the Canadian housing market, with mortgage rates rising over the past two months as bond yields climbed due to rising inflation. In this context, we expect prices to continue to decline in the coming months, primarily due to particularly loose market conditions in Ontario and British Columbia.

April 2026

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index continued to decline in March for the fourth consecutive month, and the decline even accelerated, with property prices falling by 1.0% between February and March, compared with a 0.6% drop the previous month. As a result, prices have fallen by 2.3% over the past four months and by 5.0% year-over-year. Furthermore, 55% of all markets tracked by our price indices in March were down 10% or more from their peak. Although this proportion is lower than what was recorded in 2022, it remains very high by historical standards, especially given the current environment of more accommodative interest rates. The continued price decline in March comes as the number of transactions in the resale market remains particularly low, despite stabilization in sales during the month. In fact, the ratio of transactions per household nationwide was 26% below its historical average. It is also worth noting that the price decline over the past year was nearly as significant for condos (-5.6%) as it was for single-family homes (-4.9%), illustrating the widespread weakness of the Canadian residential market. There is no doubt that several factors continue to weigh on the real estate sector, including demographic decline, the weak labour market since the start of the year, and trade uncertainty—to which geopolitical uncertainty has now been added. The conflict in the Middle East has even had repercussions on the Canadian real estate market, with mortgage rates rising in March as bond yields climbed due to higher inflation anticipated by the markets. Against this backdrop, we expect prices to continue their downward trend in the coming months, assuming there is no positive turnaround in trade tensions with the United States.

April 2026