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Index base value of 100 = June 2005
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CMA profile and table data are based on 2011 Census Data
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Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™

An independent representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.
Index
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Post Category: Monthly Reports
January 12, 2018
The House Price Index stopped retreating in December

In December the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  edged up 0.2% from the previous month, interrupting a three-month run of declines. However, only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed index increases. The one-tick rise of the composite index was due to a 1.3% jump of the index for the large Vancouver […]

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Post Category: Research
January 11, 2018
Housing starts come back to earth in December

OPINION: Housing starts declined sharply in the last month of 2017 but still managed to beat consensus expectations (211K). A retracement was always in the cards after the unsustainable figure posted in November (251.7K). A good chunk of the decline in December stemmed from an expected fall in multi-unit starts in Ontario (-34.0K) after the latter reached an all-time high in the previous month. Excluding that category, housing starts countrywide were roughly flat month on month. Looking at quarterly data, starts advanced an annualized 13.5% in the fourth quarter, following a +35.6% print in Q3. Despite that jump, it is hard to know whether or not residential construction contributed to economic growth in Q4. True, quarterly data showed a marked increase in multiple starts (+35.8% annualized), but ground-breakings for single units, whose per-unit contribution to GDP is greater, slumped 28.6% in annualized terms. One thing is for sure: 2017 has truly been a banner year for residential construction in the country, with starts totaling 220.5K, the best figure in ten years. Such a performance is unlikely to be repeated in 2018. Indeed, with the implementation of the new B-20 guidelines for mortgage lending, and considering that the Bank of Canada

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Post Category: News and Press Releases
January 12, 2018
Vancouver the main driver of the Composite in December

OPINION: Without Vancouver, the Composite index would have declined for a fourth month in a row (top chart). The strength of Vancouver’s index is consistent with continued tight home resale market conditions. Toronto’s index declined for a fifth consecutive month, but the unsmoothed index (see note on methodology on next page) rose for a second month in a row (middle chart). Unless the unsmoothed index relapses in January, the sequence of declines in the smoothed index should then be interrupted. However this improvement is likely to prove temporary, as it might have resulted from buyers rushing to avoid the new bylaws on qualification for an uninsured mortgage (implemented in January 2018). This view is supported by the increase in Toronto home sales in November and December compared to previous months (bottom chart). Therefore, a resumption of the downward price trend early this year cannot be excluded.

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201712 TNB monthly commentary

Methodology
HPI Methodology
 
Introduction to Index
Introduction to Index
 
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