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Index base value of 100 = June 2005
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CMA profile and table data are based on 2011 Census Data
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Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™

An independent representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.
Index
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Post Category: Monthly Reports
July 20, 2020
Confirmation of housing-market slowdown due to COVID-19

In June the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.7% from the month before, a rise half the average for June over the previous 10 years and the lowest June advance in 17 years. And if the index were corrected for seasonal pressures (seasonal adjustment), it would show a slight decline of […]

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Post Category: Research
June 16, 2020
Home affordability improved slightly in Q1 2020

Housing affordability in Canada’s large urban centres improved in the first quarter of 2020. Although mortgage interest rates remained essentially unchanged from Q4 to 2019, an increase in income was able to offset the rise of home prices for the urban composite. The latter registered a second consecutive 1.5% gain in prices in the quarter. But this is now old news as the economy has entered a recession which could significantly shake the Canadian housing market and therefore affordability. Interest rates are unlikely to provide much relief for homebuyers as they have in previous economic crisis’. Indeed, interest rates were already very low before the crisis, and give zero lower bound for central banks, they have very little room to move lower. The 5-year mortgage rate has declined only 17 basis points from the beginning of the present crisis, which is very little compared to the declines of other recessions. Moreover, incomes should face some headwinds as we expect the unemployment rate to hover near 9% over the coming year with production capacity being destroyed due to the current lockdown. In such a context, we foresee a marked drop in home prices, about 10% nationally, sharper than in any of the country’s last three recessions. Of course, this scenario assumes that the CMHC refrains from raising the minimum down payment as suggested on May 15th. In our vie, such a policy in the context of a recession would amplify the risk of home-price deflation by excluding potential homebuyers.

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Post Category: News and Press Releases
July 20, 2020
Confirmation of housing-market slowdown due to COVID-19

Last month’s advance in the Composite index was the lowest for a month of June since 2004. This adds to other signs already witnessed in May of a slowing of activity on the housing market due to COVID-19. For instance, the number of sales pairs from which June indexes were derived was the lowest for a month of June since 2001. As in May, a low level of sales pairs was recorded in all the 11 metropolitan areas comprised in the Composite index. Also, June marks the second monthly decline in a row of the seasonally adjusted raw Composite index. The raw index declined in June in six of the 11 metropolitan areas. True, According to CREA, overall Canadian home sales returned to a more normal level, and this should be soon reflected in land registries. But question marks still lie ahead. We expect the Canadian unemployment rate to remain elevated for a while. In this context, demand for housing may decrease due to a reduction in immigration and would-be first-time homebuyers not being able to qualify for a mortgage loan. That said, the homeownership rate is low among workers in sectors hardest hit by COVID-19.

July 2020

Methodology
HPI Methodology
 
Introduction to Index
Introduction to Index
 
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