Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™

The Teranet-National Bank composite index fell 1.5% from March to April, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline and a sharper contraction than in previous months. This comes at a time when the resale market continues to be particularly weak, due in large part to the uncertainty surrounding the trade war with the United States. As a result, prices have declined by 2.4% since December 2024, with a more pronounced decline for condominiums (-2.7%) and a slightly less pronounced decline for other types of housing (-2.1%). It should be noted that 68% of the markets monitored (21 out of 31) were down during the month, a higher number than the 61% observed in March, while the proportion of CMAs outside Ontario jumped in April (40% to 67%). Conversely, the number of markets in decline in Ontario was lower than in the previous month (81% to 69%) but remained high. It should be noted that the weakness in Ontario’s real estate market remains significant, with 75% of the markets covered experiencing a decline of 10% or more from their all-time highs, compared to only 27% elsewhere in the country. In addition, challenges are intensifying in the province’s three largest cities, all of which experienced monthly declines in April that were twice as large as those seen in March (Toronto: -1.3% to -2.7%, Hamilton: -0.8% to -3.9%, Ottawa-Gatineau: -0.5% to -1.0%). In the context of ongoing economic uncertainty, moderate population growth and the risk that long-term interest rates will remain higher for longer than expected, home prices are likely to remain under pressure in the coming months.

May 2025