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Index base value of 100 = June 2005
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CMA profile and table data are based on 2011 Census Data
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Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™

An independent representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.
Index
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Post Category: Monthly Reports
November 19, 2019
Vancouver’s index finally up in October

In October the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM began the fourth quarter with a dip of 0.1% from the month before. The final quarter of the year is typically slow for the index, and the monthly decline was in line with the average of the last 10 Octobers, in five of which the […]

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Post Category: Research
November 14, 2019
Home affordability improves for a third consecutive quarter in Q3 2019

The housing affordability composite index reversed back to its historical average in Q3 2019 as all observed markets improved in each of the last three quarters. The most significant factor to this development was the decline in mortgage rates. Indeed, the free-fall in financing costs over the last nine months was the most substantial since 2012 (-87 bps). The booming labour market also played a significant role in this development as income grew at a whopping 5.1% annualized over that period while home prices did not materially change at the national level. While our national housing affordability composite index is now in line with its historical average (43% of median income), it does not mean that the situation is back to normal in all metropolitan areas. Despite some welcome progress in the last three quarters (see chart on the left), the situation remains difficult in the two largest markets by housing market value. In Toronto, both condo and non-condo affordability improved substantially since Q4 2018 but remain above their respective historical averages. In Vancouver, the monthly mortgage payment as a percentage of income has reverted to its Q1 2016 level helped by a cumulative decline of home prices (down 8.1% since their peak). We note that affordability in the condo market in Greater Vancouver is back to its historical average while the non-condo segment remains costlier. Elsewhere in the country, the Montreal market for its part saw a smaller improvement as home prices registered the largest increase following Ottawa-Gatineau. Surging population growth in Canada’s largest metro areas, coupled with leveling mortgage rates should limit the scope for further improvement in home affordability.

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Post Category: News and Press Releases
November 19, 2019
Vancouver’s HPI finally up in October

The fact that the national HPI began the fourth quarter with a dip is not troublesome. The fourth quarter is typically a lethargic period for the index. Indeed, last month’s decline was smaller than the average of the last ten Octobers. We do not think that October heralds a downward trend on the national home resale market. We rather welcome the first monthly rise of Vancouver’s index in 15 months. This is consistent with the strong revival of Vancouver home sales since August. On the other hand, October ended a run of six monthly rises in Toronto and Hamilton. Same story for the five-months runs of Montreal and Winnipeg. But there are no reasons to believe that October’s drops in these metropolitan areas are the start of a trend. Judging from the most recent data, the resale market remains balanced in Toronto and Winnipeg, and favorable to sellers in Montreal and Hamilton.

November 2019

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Introduction to Index
 
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