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CMA profile and table data are based on 2011 Census Data
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Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™

An independent representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.
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Post Category: Monthly Reports
April 12, 2018
A flat March for the Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™

The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was unchanged in March – the first time outside a recession when the March composite index was not up at least 0.2 percentage points from February and the first time outside a recession when March indexes were up for only four of the 11 metropolitan markets of […]

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Post Category: Research
February 14, 2018
Vancouver again drove the Composite in January

OPINION: Just like it did the prior month, Vancouver drove the Composite index in January – without Vancouver, the Composite index would have retreated for a fifth month in a row (top chart). On a y/y basis, Vancouver’s index for condos surged 23.0%, while the index for other types of dwellings rose 13.5%. The fact is that Vancouver’s home resale market remained tight even after the introduction of a tax on acquisitions by foreigners (middle chart). The same cannot be said of Toronto, where the market turned from tight to balanced after the introduction of a similar tax last April. Toronto’s index was nevertheless up in January for the first time in six months, after the unsmoothed index (see note on methodology on next page) rose for a third month in a row (bottom chart). This firming of home prices in Toronto might reflect a rush to buy with pre-approved mortgages granted before more stringent rules on qualification for an uninsured mortgages were applied starting January 1st. With further increases in mortgage rates still to come (according to CMHC, posted 5y rates were at 4.14% in January against a low of 3.59% last May), it is premature to conclude that home prices have definitely turned the corner in Toronto.

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Post Category: News and Press Releases
April 12, 2018
Composite Index flat in March

OPINION: Without Vancouver, the Composite Index would have declined in March and in 5 of the 6 preceding months (top chart). Speaking of Vancouver, inferring from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver data, seasonally adjusted home sales have declined markedly over the last two months and the listings-to-sales ratio, while still in the sellers’ market territory, moved close to the balanced market boundary (middle chart). This should translate into moderate increases in Vancouver’s Index over the next few months. Apart from Vancouver and Victoria, March indices were below their recent peak in all regions, but the decline was the most obvious in Toronto (-7.3% since last July). This drop was likely triggered by Ontario’s implementation of the 15% Non-
Resident Speculation Tax followed by stricter rules for qualification for a mortgage (B20) and a rise in mortgage rates. As a result, Toronto monthly seasonally adjusted home sales, which had averaged more than 9,000 units over the previous 24 months, fell to less than 7,000 units on average since last May (bottom chart). Following this change in home sales pace, Toronto home resale market turned from very tight to balanced. With the two most important Canadian markets now in balanced territory or nearing it, a soft landing is the most likely outcome for the Canadian residential market.

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Mar 2018_EN

Methodology
HPI Methodology
 
Introduction to Index
Introduction to Index
 
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