Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index continued to rise in September, posting a modest increase of 0.2% for the second consecutive month, following a period of price contraction from January to July. This growth comes as the number of transactions in the resale market has increased in recent months, against a backdrop of improved consumer confidence, despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the trade dispute with the United States. While the increase in prices in the previous month was due to a rebound in Ontario markets, where particularly soft market conditions have tightened recently, the increase in September was driven by significant gains in Montreal and Quebec City, two markets where resale activity remains very high. It should be noted, however, that despite the slight increase in prices over the past two months, the composite index is still down 2.6% from September 2024, with significant declines in Toronto (-6.9%) and Vancouver (-5.0%), as well as Victoria (-0.7%) and Hamilton (-2.7%) to a lesser extent. Against the backdrop of the current trade dispute, market resilience has depended on differing levels of affordability. Indeed, the markets with the highest affordability challenges saw the sharpest declines, as the financial risk of such a large real estate transaction was amplified by economic uncertainty. While the composite index maintained its upward trend in September, market conditions, which remain soft in Ontario and British Columbia, are expected to limit price growth in the coming months, despite support from Bank of Canada policy rate cuts. Although prices may continue to rise in the coming months, the persistent climate of uncertainty, moderating population growth, the risk of long-term interest rates remaining high, and the ongoing deterioration of the labour market are all factors that will continue to weigh on the residential market.

October 2025