Map of Canada
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Index base value of 100 = June 2005
Map of...
Population  
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Number of occupied private dwellings  
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CMA profile and table data are based on 2011 Census Data
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Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™

An independent representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.
Index
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Post Category: Monthly Reports
October 18, 2019
Underlying rise of the composite index confirmed in September

In September the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.1% from the month before. As in the three previous months, the gain was below the 21-year average for the month, which for September is 0.2%. However, as in August, the September index would have remained up slightly if corrected for seasonal pressure […]

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Post Category: Research
November 14, 2019
Home affordability improves for a third consecutive quarter in Q3 2019

The housing affordability composite index reversed back to its historical average in Q3 2019 as all observed markets improved in each of the last three quarters. The most significant factor to this development was the decline in mortgage rates. Indeed, the free-fall in financing costs over the last nine months was the most substantial since 2012 (-87 bps). The booming labour market also played a significant role in this development as income grew at a whopping 5.1% annualized over that period while home prices did not materially change at the national level. While our national housing affordability composite index is now in line with its historical average (43% of median income), it does not mean that the situation is back to normal in all metropolitan areas. Despite some welcome progress in the last three quarters (see chart on the left), the situation remains difficult in the two largest markets by housing market value. In Toronto, both condo and non-condo affordability improved substantially since Q4 2018 but remain above their respective historical averages. In Vancouver, the monthly mortgage payment as a percentage of income has reverted to its Q1 2016 level helped by a cumulative decline of home prices (down 8.1% since their peak). We note that affordability in the condo market in Greater Vancouver is back to its historical average while the non-condo segment remains costlier. Elsewhere in the country, the Montreal market for its part saw a smaller improvement as home prices registered the largest increase following Ottawa-Gatineau. Surging population growth in Canada’s largest metro areas, coupled with leveling mortgage rates should limit the scope for further improvement in home affordability.

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Post Category: News and Press Releases
October 18, 2019
National HPI: An upward underlying trend arises

The fact that the national HPI has grown each month from May to September is not surprising. Almost all of the increase of a HPI during a year typically takes place over these months where the activity on the home resale market is the most intense. The underlying trend is better revealed when the HPI is seasonally adjusted. After that adjustment, the national HPI showed a downward trend from February to July, but the trend turned upward in August and September (left chart). That being said, this situation was not homogeneous among all the component regions. Seasonally adjusted or not, home prices continue to decline in Vancouver. But home sales in Vancouver have recovered strongly since their March trough (right chart). Over the period, conditions on the home resale market turned from “favorable to buyers” to “balanced”. This suggests that home price deflation should fade over the next few months in Vancouver.

October 2019

Methodology
HPI Methodology
 
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Introduction to Index
 
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