Post Category: Monthly Reports
May 20, 2020

A swan song before Covid-19 infects the indices?

In April the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 1.3% from the previous month. As in February and March, that was double the average gain of the last 10 Aprils. Leading the countrywide average rise were the metropolitan markets of Ottawa-Gatineau (2.4%), Toronto (2.0%), Halifax (1.8%), Montreal (1.7%), Victoria (1.2%), Hamilton (1.1%) and Winnipeg (0.9%). Matching it was Vancouver at 0.6%. Trailing it were Quebec City (0.3%), Calgary (0.2%) and Edmonton (flat on the month).

The index for Vancouver has now gone seven months without a decline, confirming a turnaround of the trend of the previous 14 straight months without a rise. The index for Ottawa-Gatineau has risen in 12 of the last 13 months, those for Hamilton, Toronto and Montreal in 11. Over a longer term, Montreal stands out with 35 gains in the last 40 months, trailed distantly by Toronto and Hamilton with 26 and Ottawa-Gatineau with 25. It is true, however, that the last three markets have risen slightly more than Montreal over those 40 months.

In April the composite index was up 5.3% from a year earlier, for a ninth consecutive acceleration of the 12-month gain to its strongest since May 2018. The 12-month rise was led by Ottawa-Gatineau (13.2%), Montreal (9.5%), Halifax (9.5%), Hamilton (8.9%) and Toronto (8.2%). Lagging the countrywide average were Victoria (4.6%), Winnipeg (3.2%) and Vancouver (0.4%). The Quebec City index was flat from a year earlier, having fluctuated without tendency over the 12 months. Deflating over the 12 months were Calgary (−0.8%) and Edmonton (−2.8%).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In April, all of them were up from the previous month and from a year earlier: Peterborough 3.2%, Barrie 5.4%, Guelph 7.7%, Oshawa 7.8%, Brantford 8.3%, St. Catharines 10.7%, Kitchener 11.4%.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe. Of the two in B.C., Abbotsford-Mission was up 3.5% and Kelowna 5.0%. Of the five in Ontario, Thunder Bay has declined in the last eight months and by April was down 6.0% from a year earlier. The other four were all up from a year earlier – Sudbury 5.8%, Windsor 12.0%, London 9.9% and Kingston 9.8%.

Among the 11 Indexes included in the composite index and the 14 other indexes available, April showed the fewest monthly declines (two out of 25) since last June. This could obviously change with the economy now thrown into recession by the public-health measures taken to contain the spread of the Covid-19 virus.

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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