The Teranet-National Bank HPI remained essentially stable between September and October after a small increase of 0.1% the previous month. Does this mean that housing prices have entered a dry spell in Canada? Not so fast. It is quite typical to observe a lull in September and October after the summer strength. In fact, the evolution of the last two months was essentially in line with the average of the last ten years for these months. This is still a significant moderation relative to the previous seven months, which were all substantially above their averages. For this reason, the 12-month price growth moderated but remains high at 15.8% for the composite 11. Over this period, no less than 80% of the 32 agglomerations posted increases of more than 10%, which testifies of the generalized nature of the increases in the country. Despite the deterioration in affordability over the past year and our expectation of higher mortgage interest rates going forward, we do not foresee a downward trend in prices for the next few months. This is because although the level of sales has moderated recently, it remains historically high and the inventory of properties for sale continues to be extremely low.

November 2021