Post Category: Monthly Reports
October 20, 2022

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index sees another record monthly decline in September

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM fell 3.1% from August to September, the largest monthly decline on record since the index began in 1999 and shattering the previous month’s record decline of 2.4%.

After seasonal adjustment, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM fell 2.0% from August to September, a monthly drop that equalled the previous month’s record and the fifth consecutive decline. In September, eight of the 11 CMAs included in the index experienced contractions, while prices were up in Calgary (+1.2%), Halifax (+1.1%) and Edmonton (+0.2%). The largest price declines were in Victoria (-5.9%), Vancouver (-3.5%) and Hamilton (-2.1%). For the remaining CMAs not included in the composite index, a decrease was observed in 18 of the 20 CMAs. The largest monthly decreases were observed in Peterborough (-11.8%), Windsor (-5.4%), Belleville (-5.1%) and London (-5.0%). Conversely, Trois-Rivières (+5.5%) and Brantford (+2.0%) were up.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM, covering eleven CMAs around the country, recorded an annual gain of 6.0% in September, the fifth consecutive month of lower growth than the previous month. Increases were seen in all eleven cities in the composite index in September. Halifax led the way with a 16.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Calgary with a 14.7% gain and Montreal with a 10.8% increase. As for the other 20 CMAs not included in the composite index, positive annual gains were observed in 19 of them, with Peterborough being the exception (-6.6%). In the remaining cities, increases ranged from 2.0% in London to 19.6% in Trois-Rivières.

Metropolitan area % change m/m % change m/m, SA % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Daren King
Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

Disclaimer

This monthly report, its layout and design as well as its content, including (without limitation) index data and related information and materials (“Index Data”) are protected by copyright law, both individually and as a collective work or compilation, and by trade-mark law, and other applicable laws.  National Bank of Canada (“NBC”) and Teranet Inc. (“Teranet”) grant to you a limited non-exclusive, non-transferable license to view, copy and print this monthly report, provided that all copies that you make must be solely for your non-commercial, personal use, and must retain all copyright and other notices that are on this web site.  Except as provided in the previous sentence, you may not (for either commercial or non-commercial use) use, distribute, sell, modify, transmit, revise, reverse engineer, republish, post or create derivative works (where applicable) of any content of this monthly report without the prior written permission of Teranet and National Bank (who are referred to collectively herein as the “Index Data Providers”).  Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, the Index Data and other Index Data Provider intellectual property contained in this monthly report may not be used as a basis for any financial instruments or products (including, without limitation, passively managed funds and index-linked derivative securities), or used to verify or correct data in any other compilation of data or index, or used to create any other data or index (custom or otherwise), without the Index Data Providers’ prior written permission.  You acknowledge and agree that you will not acquire any rights or licenses in the content of this monthly report.

The Index Data is for informational purposes only, and the user of the information contained in the Index Data assumes the entire risk of any use made of the Index Data. You understand and agree that the Index Data is provided "as is" and neither National Bank of Canada (“NBC”) nor Teranet Inc. (“Teranet”, and together with NBC, the “Index Data Providers”) warrants the accuracy, completeness, non-infringement, originality, timeliness or any other characteristic of the Index Data.

The Index Data is not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Further, none of the Index Data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Reproduction, redistribution or any other form of copying or transmission of the Index Data without the Index Data Providers’ prior written consent is strictly prohibited. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, the Index Data and other Index Data Provider intellectual property may not be used as a basis for any financial instruments or products (including, without limitation, passively managed funds and index-linked derivative securities), or used to verify or correct data in any other compilation of data or index, or used to create any other data or index (custom or otherwise), without the Index Data Providers’ prior written permission.

In no event shall any of NBC, Teranet, their respective affiliates, any of their or their direct or indirect information providers nor any other third party involved in, or related to, compiling, computing or creating any of the Index Information (collectively, the "Index Data Provider Parties") have any liability to any person or entity for any damages, whether direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, loss of use, lost profits or revenues or any other economic loss) arising in any manner out of your use or inability to use any of the Index Data contained in this monthly report, even if such party might have anticipated, or was advised or notified of, the possibility of such damages.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

In addition to their informational role, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ was developed to be a benchmark for financial professionals. Teranet and NBC offer licenses covering all index-linked products.

Teranet offers e-services to the legal, real estate, government, financial and healthcare markets. Combining our focus on customer needs with technical sophistication and operational simplicity, our comprehensive products and services include property information, transaction management, collateral risk management, geospatial information, workflow software and enterprise solutions.

National Bank of Canada is an integrated provider of financial services to retail, commercial, corporate and institutional clients. It operates in three business segments—Personal and Commercial, Wealth Management and Financial Markets—with total assets in excess of $216 billion as at October 31, 2015. Through its nearly 20,000 employees, National Bank offers a complete range of services that include banking and investment solutions for individuals and businesses as well as securities brokerage, insurance and wealth management services. National Bank is the leading bank in Quebec and the partner of choice for small and medium-sized enterprises. It is also the sixth largest bank in Canada with branches in almost every province. Clients in the United States, Europe and other parts of the world are served through a network of representative offices, subsidiaries and partnerships. Its head office is located in Montreal and its securities are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: