The Teranet-National Bank HPI continued to decline in December so that the cumulative drop in prices since their peak in May 2022 totaled 10.0%, the largest contraction in the index ever recorded. The current decline in prices has even surpassed the 9.2% loss in value that occurred during the 2008 financial crisis. However, there is some consolation in that the seasonally adjusted monthly decrease in prices in December was less significant than in November, going from -1.0% to -0.3%. With the Bank of Canada raising its key interest rate again in December and mortgage rates remaining high, we believe that the impact on property prices should continue to be felt in the coming months. All in all, we still expect the total correction to be limited to about 15% nationally by the end of 2023, but this assumes that policy rate hikes are coming to an end and that declines occur in the second half of 2023. Although corrections are occurring in all markets covered by the index (except Lethbridge), the CMAs that have experienced the largest price growth over the past two years are also the ones that have experienced the largest declines to date. Ontario, British Columbia and the Maritimes therefore appear to be more vulnerable, while the Prairie markets are less so, helped by a buoyant economic environment.

January 2023