Post Category: Monthly Reports
April 20, 2023

Record Annual Decline in the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index in March

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The Teranet-National BankTM Composite Home Price Index, which covers eleven CMAs across the country, declined by 6.9% from March 2022 to March 2023, slightly worse than the previous record contraction recorded during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Increases were still observed in 3 of the 11 cities that make up the composite index in March. Calgary led the way with a 7.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Quebec City with a 4.1% gain, and Edmonton with a 2.2% increase. As for the lagging markets, prices fell the most in Hamilton (-13.5%), Toronto (-12.1%) and Victoria (-8.7%). As for the other 20 CMAs not included in the composite index, positive annual gains were observed in 7 of them. The strongest growth was recorded in Trois-Rivières (+18.8%) and Sherbrooke (+12.4%), while the largest declines were in Oshawa (-19.3%), Abbotsford-Mission (-17.7%), Peterborough (-17.2%) and Guelph (-15.8%).

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National BankTM Composite House Price Index increased by 0.5% from February to March, the first increase in ten months.

However, after adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National BankTM Composite House Price Index decreased by 0.8% from February to March, the ninth consecutive monthly decline. In March, 7 of the 11 CMAs included in the index experienced contractions: Victoria (-4.5%), Winnipeg (-2.4%), Toronto (-1.9%), Edmonton (-0.9%), Hamilton (-0.1%), Quebec City (-0.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.1%). Conversely, prices increased during the month in Halifax (+2.3%), Montreal (+0.5%), Vancouver (+0.3%) and Calgary (+0.1%). For the other CMAs not included in the composite index, a decrease was observed in 12 of the 20 CMAs for which data is available in March. The largest monthly decreases were observed in Peterborough (-3.8%) and Oshawa (-3.1%). Conversely, notable increases were observed in Thunder Bay (+14.9% after a decrease of 12.0% the previous month) and Sherbrooke (+13.6% after a decrease of 11.5% the previous month).

Metropolitan area % change m/m % change m/m, SA % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Daren King
Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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Teranet Inc.
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Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
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