Post Category: Monthly Reports
August 18, 2023

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index rises sharply in July

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose by 1.8% from June to July, the fifth consecutive monthly increase.

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ rose by 2.4% from June to July, the fourth consecutive monthly increase and the second-highest growth rate ever recorded in a single month, following the 3.1% increase in July 2006. In July, 8 of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded increases: Halifax (+4.9%), Hamilton (+4.4%), Vancouver (+3.9%), Toronto (+3.5%), Victoria (+1.6%), Winnipeg (+1.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.6%), and Edmonton (+0.3%). Conversely, prices fell during the month in Quebec City (-1.2%), Montreal (-0.9%), and Calgary (-0.3%). On the other hand, growth was observed in 17 of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data is available in July. The strongest monthly increases were seen in Abbotsford-Mission (+7.2%), Saint John (+6.3% after a 4.0% decline the previous month) and Guelph (+6.0%). Conversely, the biggest decrease was in Sherbrooke (-3.8% after a 5.4% rise the previous month).

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ fell by 1.9% from July 2022 to July 2023, a smaller annual contraction than the previous month. Increases were nevertheless observed in 3 of the 11 cities making up the composite index in July. Calgary led the way with a 3.3% year-on-year price increase, followed by Halifax with a 2.1% gain and Quebec City with 1.1% growth. As for lagging markets, prices fell most sharply in Hamilton (-7.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-5.4%) and Winnipeg (-5.2%). As for the other 20 CMAs not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in 3 of them. The strongest growth was recorded in Lethbridge (+7.2%) and Trois-Rivières (+5.8%), while the steepest declines were in St. Catharines (-10.5%), London (-9.3%) and Branford (-9.1%).

Metropolitan area % change m/m % change m/m, SA % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Daren King
Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

 

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

In addition to their informational role, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ was developed to be a benchmark for financial professionals. Teranet and NBC offer licenses covering all index-linked products.

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For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
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Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: