After contracting by 1.5% over the previous five months, the Teranet-National Bank Composite Index^TM finally returned to growth in February, rising by 0.2% compared with the previous month. This increase in property prices comes at a time when the housing market regained strength between November and January, buoyed by exceptional demographic growth, more advantageous fixed mortgage interest rates and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. However, it remains to be seen whether this is the start of an upward trend. On the one hand, the lack of housing supply on the market will continue to support prices, but the persistent affordability challenges should limit households’ ability to pay and thus the increase in property values. It appears that the resale market started to slip again in February, while bond yields have risen in recent weeks due to less favourable news on inflation, which is delaying potential cuts in the overnight rate. As a result, we expect home prices to move sideways in the short term.

March 2024