After almost a year in the doldrums, house prices in Canada’s major urban centers rose by 0.5% for the second consecutive month, supported by more advantageous interest rates. Despite a significant rise in the number of new listings on the resale market, inventory has been stalling over the past four months due to a large number of sellers deciding to cancel their listings each month, thus limiting the deterioration in market conditions for the time being. However, we do not believe that this is the start of a significant upward trend in home prices across the country since, despite the continuing cycle of monetary policy easing, the resale market remains sluggish, showing no signs of significant recovery. Indeed, although interest rates have fallen, affordability conditions remain extremely difficult and the job market less buoyant, particularly for young people. With the Bank of Canada set to make further rate cuts in the coming months, and with the announcement of an increase in amortization from 25 to 30 years for insured mortgages to come in December, it’s likely that many buyers and sellers have decided to be patient and will sit on the sidelines in the months ahead, waiting for even more favourable financing conditions. After a few months in the doldrums, housing market activity could pick up again in 2025.

October 2024