Post Category: Rapports mensuels
June 13, 2018

La Stabilisation des Prix des Maisons Confirmée en Mai

L’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a crû de 1,0 % en mai. Cela confirme la stabilisation de l’indice après la tendance baissière qui a prévalu au deuxième semestre de 2017. Le dernier gain mensuel est légèrement inférieur à la moyenne des croissances mensuelles du mois de mai (1,1 %) en 20 ans d’histoire de l’indice. La progression a été relativement forte à Victoria (1,8 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (1,7 %), Toronto (1,3 %), Winnipeg (1,3 %) et Vancouver (1,0 %). L’avancée de l’indice à Toronto égale ni plus ni moins la moyenne historique pour un mois de mai, tandis que celle d’Ottawa-Gatineau ne suffit pas à rattraper le terrain perdu au cours des quatre baisses mensuelles consécutives qui l’ont précédée. Le gain mensuel a été plus modeste à Edmonton (0,7 %), Québec (0,6 %), Hamilton (0,4 %), Calgary (0,4 %) et Montréal (0,3 %). L’indice est demeuré stable à Halifax.

À Toronto, le marché de la revente de copropriétés demeure serré[1]. La progression de l’indice pour ces logements s’établit à un rythme annuel de 11,1 % depuis le début de l’année, contre seulement 0,8 %  pour l’ensemble des autres types de logements. Tout comme à Toronto, la progression récente de l’indice à Vancouver est surtout due au segment des copropriétés, dont l’Indice a grimpé de 17,5 %  en rythme annuel depuis septembre dernier, contre 4,9 % pour les autres types de logements. Les indices pour Vancouver, Victoria et Montréal sont les seuls parmi les 11 régions métropolitaines couvertes à établir un nouveau record en mai. En effet, après cinq mois écoulés en 2018, les ventes de logements existants sur le marché montréalais ont connu leur meilleur départ en huit ans. Au total, l’indice composite fut en mai inférieur de 0,6 % à son sommet d’août dernier. L’indice le plus en retard sur son dernier sommet est celui de Toronto (-5,9% depuis juillet dernier).

À cause de la montée rapide de l’indice composite entre mai et août 2017, celui-ci affiche tout de même une progression de 4,5 % sur 12 mois. Cette montée est néanmoins la plus faible depuis juin 2015 et une onzième décélération de suite par rapport au rythme record de 14,2 % enregistré en juin

[1] Note méthodologique : Les données du mois courant qui servent à calculer l’indice représentent les ventes finalisées et portées au registre foncier. Les indices des 11 régions métropolitaines compris dans l’indice composite de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC représentent la tendance des prix, car l’indice publié est lissé, puisqu’il résulte d’une moyenne des indices bruts des trois derniers mois. Ce procédé permet d’adoucir les fluctuations mensuelles. Des données mensuelles plus granulaires sont disponibles sur demande. Leur obtention peut être sujette à des frais d’abonnement. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie, veuillez vous rendre sur le site  www.housepriceindex.ca.

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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Teranet Inc.
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National Bank Financial
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