Post Category: Rapports mensuels
September 12, 2018

Faiblesse à Toronto et Vancouver après dessaisonalisation

L’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a crû de 0,2 % en août[1]. Si on faisait abstraction des pressions saisonnières habituelles au mois d’août chaque année (dessaisonalisation), l’indice serait demeuré à peu près stable, faisant suite à des baisses en juin et juillet. En d’autres mots, la tendance de fond baissière de l’indice constatée en juin et juillet après dessaisonalisation n’a pas été inversée en août.

En août, les indices ont progressé dans huit des 11 régions métropolitaines couvertes. Toutefois, abstraction faite des pressions saisonnières, il n’y aurait eu un gain que dans quatre de ces régions. Si on revient aux indices publiés (non « dessaisonnalisés »), la progression mensuelle a été forte à tout point de vue à Ottawa-Gatineau (1,4 %), Hamilton (1,4 %), Montréal (1,2 %) et Québec (0,5 %). En revanche, les gains à Toronto (0,3 %), Edmonton (0,2 %), Victoria (0,1 %) et Winnipeg (0,1 %) n’ont reflété que les pressions saisonnières. Des pertes ou une stagnation auraient été enregistrées après dessaisonalisation. Les indices ont reculé Halifax (-0.6 %), Calgary (-0.3 %) et Vancouver (-0.4 %).

L’indice publié de Toronto en était à une 5ème hausse mensuelle consécutive en août. Par contre, après dessaisonalisation, l’indice aurait plutôt diminué pour un 5ème mois de suite. Ainsi dessaisonnalisés, les indices à Vancouver et Victoria auraient reculé pour un troisième mois de suite.

En août, la progression de l’indice composite sur 12 mois fut de 1,4%, la montée la plus faible depuis novembre 2009. Toutefois, cette faiblesse est due au fait qu’en août 2017, l’indice avait atteint un sommet pour perdre de l’altitude par la suite. Pour cette raison, il est probable que la progression sur 12 mois de l’indice accélère au cours des prochains mois. Pour le moment, l’indice a diminué en glissement annuel à Toronto (-3,3 %), Hamilton (-0,7 %), Calgary (-0,5 %) et Edmonton (-0,3 %). L’indice a  progressé à Winnipeg (1,3 %), Québec (1,4 %), Halifax (4,6 %), Montréal (4,8 %), Victoria (5,0 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (5,2 %) et Vancouver (7,6 %).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour les sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe. En août, ces indices étaient, à l’Instar de Toronto et Hamilton, inférieurs à leur sommet du T3 2017 dans le cas de Barrie et d’Oshawa. Des indices sont  disponibles pour sept autres régions métropolitaines dont cinq situées en Ontario et deux en Colombie-Britannique. La croissance de ces indices sur les 12 derniers mois est dispersée, allant de 1,5 % à Sudbury à 14,3 % à Abbotsford-Mission.

 

[1] Note méthodologique : Les données du mois courant qui servent à calculer l’indice représentent les ventes finalisées et portées au registre foncier. Les indices des 11 régions métropolitaines compris dans l’indice composite de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC représentent la tendance des prix, car l’indice publié est lissé, puisqu’il résulte d’une moyenne des indices bruts des trois derniers mois. Ce procédé permet d’adoucir les fluctuations mensuelles. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie, veuillez vous rendre sur le site  www.housepriceindex.ca

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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