Post Category: Rapports mensuels
December 12, 2018

EN NOVEMBRE, LES INDICES RECULENT PARTOUT SAUF À QUÉBEC, HALIFAX ET VICTORIA

L’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a diminué de 0,3 % en novembre[1]. Une baisse en novembre n’est pas la norme, car c’est seulement la quatrième fois que cela arrive en 20 ans d’histoire. Il s’agit de la deuxième perte mensuelle consécutive. Le repli a été assez généralisé, car l’indice a diminué dans huit des 11 régions métropolitaines couvertes :  Vancouver (‑0,6 %), Calgary (-0,6 %), Edmonton (-0,6 %), Winnipeg (-0,5 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (-0,4 %), Toronto (‑0,1 %), Hamilton (‑0,1 %) et Montreal (-0,1 %). L’indice est demeuré stable à Victoria, tandis qu’il a augmenté à Halifax (0,1 %) et Québec (1,2 %). Le recul de l’indice à Montréal, le premier en huit mois, ne remet pas à cause la tendance haussière de l’indice au cours période, au cours de laquelle il a crû de 4,4 %. Cette tendance est cohérente avec un marché de la revente montréalais reconnu comme favorable aux vendeurs. Les conditions de marché sont tout autres à Calgary, où l’indice a décliné au cours des quatre derniers mois, pour une perte cumulative de 1,4 %. À Toronto, l’indice a diminué de 0,4% au cours des trois derniers mois.

En novembre, la progression de l’indice composite sur 12 mois fut de 3,1%, une remontée par rapport aux trois mois précédents car d’août à octobre de l’an dernier, l’indice avait chuté abruptement. En raison des gains effectués plus tôt cette année, l’avancée sur 12 mois a été au-dessus de la moyenne nationale à Victoria (5,3 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (5,3 %), Montréal (4,4 %) Hamilton (4,4 %), Vancouver (3,9 %) et Toronto (3,3 %). La progression sur 12 mois a été plus modérée à Winnipeg (2,3 %) et Halifax (1,7 %), tandis que l’indice indique une déflation du prix des maisons à Québec (-0,3 %), Edmonton (‑0,4 %) et Calgary (-2,7 %).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour les sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe. En novembre, la plupart des indices de ces régions étaient en baisse ou au mieux stables : Brantford (-0,8 %), Guelph (-0,6 %), Oshawa (-0,6 %), Peterborough (‑0.3 %), Barrie (0,0 %) et St.Catharines (0,0 %). Kitchener (0,6 %) fut l’exception. À l’instar de Toronto et Hamilton, les indices de Barrie et d’Oshawa étaient inférieurs à leur sommet du T3 2017. Sur 12 mois, les indices ont cependant progressé partout, les gains allant de 1,3 % à Oshawa à 8,9 % à Peterborough.

Des indices sont disponibles pour sept autres régions métropolitaines dont cinq situées en Ontario et deux en Colombie-Britannique. Les indices étaient en baisse en novembre dans cinq de ces régions : Sudbury (-1,6 %), Abbotsford-Mission (-0,5 %), London (-0,3 %), Kelowna (-0,1 %) et Thunder Bay (‑0,1 %). L’indice a progressé à Windsor (0,6 %) et Kingston (0,6 %). Sur les 12 derniers mois, la croissance de ces indices est dispersée, allant de -3,0% à Thunder Bay à 12,8 % à Windsor.

 

[1] Note méthodologique : Les données du mois courant qui servent à calculer l’indice représentent les ventes finalisées et portées au registre foncier. Les indices des 11 régions métropolitaines compris dans l’indice composite de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC représentent la tendance des prix, car l’indice publié est lissé, puisqu’il résulte d’une moyenne des indices bruts des trois derniers mois. Ce procédé permet d’adoucir les fluctuations mensuelles. Pour en savoir davantage sur la méthodologie, veuillez vous rendre sur le site  www.housepriceindex.ca

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

 

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: