In January, the downward trend in home prices intensified in Western Canada’s three
largest metropolitan areas. The indexes for Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton extended
what are now the longest runs of months without an increase among the 11 metropolitan
areas covered by the national index. It was a seventh month without an increase in
Calgary, a sixth one in Vancouver and a fifth one in Edmonton. Home prices have been
trending down in three of the past four years in Calgary and Edmonton while Vancouver
shows no growth for the first time in six years (left chart). In City of Calgary, the listingsto-
sales ratio was the highest for a month of January since 2014 (right chart) – the year
when the oil price collapse occurred. Both Calgary and Edmonton are facing an outsized
number of vacant new dwellings and continued price weakness. In Vancouver, where
home sales have weakened in recent months, things appear to be stabilizing. After
seasonal adjustment, Vancouver home sales indeed stabilized when compared to
December. Solid labour markets in Greater Vancouver, where a near-record 72K jobs
were added in the last six months, argue for a more stable listings-to-sales ratio and
limited price deflation.

February 2019