L’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC est demeuré stable en avril[1]. Hormis la récession économique qui a sévi en 2009, il s’agit de la première fois que l’indice ne croît pas en avril en 21 ans d’histoire. De plus, la séquence sans hausse mensuelle s’étend maintenant à huit, l’indice ayant reculé de 1,7 % durant cette période. En avril, l’indice a perdu du terrain dans six des 11 régions métropolitaines composant l’indice: Winnipeg (-2,0 %), Halifax (-1,1 %), Vancouver (-0,4 %), Québec (-0,4 %), Calgary (-0,3 %) et Montréal (-0,2 %). Par contre, les indices ont progressé en avril à Ottawa-Gatineau (0,9 %), Hamilton (0,8 %), Toronto (0,3 %), Victoria (0,2 %) et Edmonton (0,1 %).
La tendance baissière des prix mise en évidence au plan national se manifeste particulièrement à Calgary, avec un dixième mois consécutif sans hausse pour un repli cumulatif de 4,0 %, et à Vancouver, avec un neuvième mois de suite sans hausse pour un recul total de 4,7 %. Winnipeg a quant à elle connu six mois de baisse au cours des sept derniers, pour une glissade totale de 4,2 %. À Victoria et Hamilton, la hausse d’avril a interrompu une séquence de six mois sans hausse, si bien que l’indice a perdu 3,4 % et 1,7% respectivement depuis septembre dernier. Malgré les deux dernières hausses, l’indice d’Edmonton est en retrait de 3,1 % depuis août dernier. Depuis décembre, l’indice a reculé de 1,6 % à Ottawa-Gatineau. Par contre, Toronto, le plus important marché résidentiel au pays, amoindrit plutôt la tendance baissière des prix au plan national, car depuis août, le repli de son indice est minime, soit 0,3 %, grâce à la performance de l’indice des logements en copropriété, qui a progressé de 2,4 % alors que celui des autres logements se repliait de 1,6 %.
La faiblesse récente des indices dans plusieurs régions ne transparaît que dans quatre cas lorsqu’on examine leur croissance sur 12 mois : Calgary (-3,1 %), Vancouver (-2,8 %), Winnipeg (-0,8 %) et Edmonton (-0,1 %). Le glissement annuel demeure positif à Victoria (0,7 %), Halifax (1,2 %), Québec (2,0 %), Hamilton (3,3 %), Toronto (3,3 %), Montréal (5,1 %) et Ottawa-Gatineau (6,2 %). L’indice composite a quant à lui progressé de 1,2 % sur 12 mois.
En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour les sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe. On peut parler de tendance baissière récente dans la plupart des cas, car de puis août dernier, l’indice s’est replié à Oshawa (-2,1 %), Guelph (-2,0 %), Brantford (-1,0 %), St.Catharines (-0,9 %) et Kitchener (-0,2 %). L’indice est demeuré stable à Peterborough tandis qu’il augmentait à Barrie (0,2 %).
Des indices sont disponibles pour sept autres régions métropolitaines dont cinq situées en Ontario et deux en Colombie-Britannique. Depuis août, une tendance baissière est manifeste à Abbotsford-Mission (-5,3 %), Kelowna (-3.8 %), Sudbury (-3,4 %) et Thunder Bay (-0,9 %), tandis que l’indice a progressé à Kinston (0,5 %), London (3,8 %) et Windsor (4,0 %).
[1]Note méthodologique : Les données du mois courant qui servent à calculer l’indice représentent les ventes finalisées et portées au registre foncier. Les indices des 11 régions métropolitaines compris dans l’indice composite de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC représentent la tendance des prix, car l’indice publié est lissé, puisqu’il résulte d’une moyenne des indices bruts des trois derniers mois. Ce procédé permet d’adoucir les fluctuations mensuelles. Pour en savoir davantage sur la méthodologie, veuillez vous rendre sur le site www.housepriceindex.ca
Metropolitan area
Index Level
% change m/m
% change y/y
From peak
Peak date
Report By:
Marc Pinsonneault
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie Banque Nationale du Canada
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The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.
The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.
The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.
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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices. The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.
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