Post Category: Rapports mensuels
August 20, 2019

LA PLUS FAIBLE PROGRESSION SUR 12 MOIS EN PRÈS DE 10 ANS

L’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a crû de 0,7 % en juillet.  Comme pour les deux mois précédents, cette hausse n’est pas vraiment indicatrice de vigueur au plan national, car la moyenne sur 21 ans a été de 1,0 % en juillet. Tout comme en mai et juin, ce sont strictement les pressions saisonnières qui font qu’une hausse a été enregistrée en juillet. Si on purgeait l’indice des pressions saisonnières (dessaisonalisation), on aurait obtenu des baisses de 0,5 %, 0,4 % et 0,1 % en mai, juin et juillet respectivement.

Il faut dire que l’indice composite a été freiné en juillet par le recul de 1.0 % de l’indice à Vancouver. Il s’agissait pour cette région métropolitaine d’un douzième mois de suite sans hausse. Elle demeure la seule région intégrée à l’indice composite où la séquence de baisses mensuelles s’est poursuivie en juillet. Ailleurs, l’indice a progressé à Québec (0,1 %), Edmonton (0,5 %), Victoria (0,6 %), Calgary (0,7 %), Toronto (1,3 %), Hamilton (1,3 %), Halifax (1,6 %), Montréal (1,7 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (2,0 %) et Winnipeg (2,9 %).

La faiblesse récente des indices dans plusieurs régions transparaît dans la croissance sur 12 mois de l’indice composite, à hauteur de 0,4 % en juillet, la plus faible croissance depuis novembre 2009. L’indice composite a été tiré vers le bas par les grands centres urbains des Provinces de l’Ouest : Vancouver (‑6,2 %),  Calgary (-3,1 %), Edmonton (-2,8 %). De plus, les gains ont été légers à Winnipeg (0,5 %) et Victoria (0,6 %). Le glissement annuel a été plus significatif à Québec (1,0 %), Halifax (3,1 %), Toronto (3,2 %), Hamilton (5,1 %), Montréal (5,8 %) et Ottawa-Gatineau (6,0 %).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour les sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe. La tendance baissière des indices depuis août dernier, dénotée lors des rapports précédents, est maintenant chose du passé car tous ces indices ont repris du poil de la bête depuis le début de l’année : Oshawa (2,6 %), Guelph (4,0 %), St.Catharines (4,1 %), Barrie (4,9 %), Kitchener (5,0 %), Brantford (7,7 %) et Peterborough (8,7 %).

Des indices sont disponibles pour sept autres régions métropolitaines. Les deux régions situées en Colombie-Britannique ont été éprouvés récemment. Ainsi, depuis le début de l’année, l’indice a reculé à  à Abbotsford-Mission (-2,7 %) tandis que l’indice de Kelowna ne retrouvait la croissance que grâce à une forte avancée en juin. Les centres situés en Ontario ont fait meilleure figure : Sudbury (4,8 %), London (5,4 %), Windsor (7,7 %), Kingston (7,7 %) et Thunder Bay (10,5 %).

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

 

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

In addition to their informational role, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ was developed to be a benchmark for financial professionals. Teranet and NBC offer licenses covering all index-linked products.

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Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
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Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
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