The fact that the national HPI has grown each month from May to September is not surprising. Almost all of the increase of a HPI during a year typically takes place over these months where the activity on the home resale market is the most intense. The underlying trend is better revealed when the HPI is seasonally adjusted. After that adjustment, the national HPI showed a downward trend from February to July, but the trend turned upward in August and September (left chart). That being said, this situation was not homogeneous among all the component regions. Seasonally adjusted or not, home prices continue to decline in Vancouver. But home sales in Vancouver have recovered strongly since their March trough (right chart). Over the period, conditions on the home resale market turned from “favorable to buyers” to “balanced”. This suggests that home price deflation should fade over the next few months in Vancouver.

October 2019