Post Category: Rapports mensuels
November 19, 2019

L’INDICE DE VANCOUVER ENFIN EN HAUSSE EN OCTOBRE

L’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a entamé le quatrième trimestre en diminuant de 0,1 % en octobre. Il faut savoir que chaque année, le quatrième trimestre est la période creuse de l’indice composite. Aussi, la dernière baisse de l’indice composite est en ligne avec la moyenne au cours des dix dernières années pour un mois d’octobre. Au cours de cette décennie, l’indice composite a d’ailleurs chuté cinq fois en octobre. Bref, il est prématuré de voir dans la diminution du mois dernier l’amorce d’une tendance baissière du marché de la revente au niveau national. D’ailleurs, si on extirpait les pressions saisonnières (dessaisonalisation) de l’indice, on verrait pour un troisième mois d’affilée une tendance haussière sous-jacente.

L’indice composite a été freiné en octobre par des replis à Edmonton (‑1,0 %), Winnipeg (-0,4 %), Toronto (-0.2 %), Hamilton (-0,2 %), Calgary (-0,1 %) et Montréal (-0,1 %). Par contre, l’indice a progressé à Québec (0,1 %), Vancouver (0,2 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (0,2 %), Victoria (0,7 %) et Halifax (1,3 %). Pour Vancouver, il s’agit de la première hausse de l’indice en 15 mois. Ce retournement est cohérent avec la forte remontée des ventes de maisons dans cette région métropolitaine depuis août dernier. L’indice d’Ottawa-Gatineau a crû pour un septième mois consécutif en octobre, avec un bond cumulatif de 9,8 %. Victoria connaît aussi une bonne séquence, avec six hausses de l’indice au cours des sept derniers mois. Pour Halifax, il s’agissait de la dixième hausse en 12 mois. Par contre, Toronto a vu la série de six  hausses mensuelles de l’indice être interrompue en octobre. Ce fut aussi le cas des séquences de cinq hausses de l’indice à Montréal et Winnipeg. Selon les derniers renseignements, le marché de la revente demeure néanmoins équilibré à Toronto et Winnipeg et favorable aux vendeurs à Montréal.

Malgré la baisse d’octobre, l’indice composite a certes connu un regain au cours des six derniers mois, mais cela fait suite à une faiblesse au cours des six mois précédents. Cette dernière transparaît dans la croissance sur 12 mois de l’indice composite de 1,0 % seulement en octobre, même s’il s’agit d’une troisième accélération de suite. Le glissement annuel de l’indice composite a été tiré vers le bas par les grands centres urbains des Provinces de l’Ouest : Vancouver (‑6,2 %), Edmonton (‑3,4 %) et Calgary (‑1,7 %). Sur 12 mois, l’indice a marginalement progressé à Winnipeg (0,3 %), Victoria (0,7 %) et Québec (1,0 %). L’avancée a été plus convaincante à Toronto (4,1 %), Hamilton (4,5 %), Montréal (6,0 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (7,7 %) et Halifax (8,3 %).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour les sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe. En général, le profil de ces indices au cours des 12 derniers mois est assez similaire à ceux de Toronto et Hamilton, une reprise à compter du deuxième trimestre succédant à une faiblesse. Au net, ces indices ont connu des croissances au cours des 12 derniers mois, certaines enviables : Oshawa (1,8 %), Barrie (3,1 %), Brantford (5,6 %), Peterborough (6,8 %), Guelph (6,8 %), Kitchener (7,3 %) et St. Catharines (7,7 %).

Des indices sont disponibles pour sept autres régions métropolitaines, dont deux situées en Colombie-Britannique. La région d’Abbotsford-Mission (-2,8 %) a été éprouvée au cours des 12 derniers mois, tandis que l’indice de Kelowna (2,2 % en glissement annuel) a connu un redressement au cours des sept derniers mois. Les cinq autres régions sont situées en Ontario. Les indices de Windsor (9,8 %) et London (9,1 %) ont maintenu fière allure sur l’ensemble des 12 derniers mois. Le redressement des derniers mois a été spectaculaire à Thunder Bay (6,6 % en glissement annuel), Kingston (6,1 %) et Sudbury (4,6 %).

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

 

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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Teranet Inc.
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