Post Category: Rapports mensuels
March 18, 2020

HAUSSE VIGOUREUSE DE L’INDICE POUR UN MOIS DE FÉVRIER

L’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a crû de 0,4 % en février, soit le double de la moyenne des hausses en février au cours des 10 années précédentes. L’indice a crû dans sept des 11 régions métropolitaines qui le constituent, soit à Montréal (1,1 %), Vancouver (0,8 %), Halifax (0,8 %), Toronto (0,4 %), Victoria (0,2 %), Winnipeg (0,1 %) et Ottawa-Gatineau (0,1 %). L’indice a diminué à Hamilton (-0,3 %), Québec (-0,4 %), Calgary (-0,9 %) et Edmonton (-1,3 %).

L’indice de Vancouver n’a pas connu de baisse au cours des cinq derniers mois. La vilaine séquence de 14 mois de suite sans hausse qui avait précédé semble donc définitivement chose du passé, d’autant plus que le marché de la revente de Vancouver a retrouvé l’équilibre si on en croît le ratio des inscriptions aux ventes. L’indice a plutôt stagné à Victoria au cours des quatre derniers mois tandis qu’il a chuté au total des cinq derniers mois à Winnipeg, Calgary et Edmonton. Par contre, les indices de Toronto, Montréal, Hamilton et Halifax ont connu une forte progression au cours des 11 derniers mois. Dans l’est du pays, seul Québec tranche avec une perte au total des sept derniers mois.

Au total, la croissance sur 12 mois de l’indice composite a été de 2,9 %, ce qui constitue un septième mois d’accélération du glissement annuel, et le plus élevé depuis décembre 2018. Durant cette période, l’indice composite a été tiré vers le haut par ceux d’Ottawa-Gatineau (8,7 %), Hamilton (8,0 %), Montréal (7,5 %), Halifax (7,0 %) et Toronto (5,1 %). La croissance a été sous la moyenne nationale à Victoria (2,5 %) et Winnipeg (0,7 %), tandis qu’il y a eu déflation du prix des maisons à Québec (-0,5 %), Calgary (-1,7 %), Edmonton (-1,8 %) et Vancouver (-2,1 %).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour les sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe. Sur les derniers 12 mois, certaines régions ont connu un départ lent jusqu’à la mi-période suivi d’une envolée fulgurante. Ce fut le cas pour Brantford (7,7 %), Kitchener (9,6 %) et St. Catharines (8,8 %). Le profil est inverse à Barrie (+4,5 %), Guelph (5,9 %), Oshawa (+5,3 %) et Peterborough (+7,1 %), où la majeure partie du gain était déjà réalisée à mi-parcours.

Des indices sont disponibles pour sept autres régions métropolitaines, dont deux situées en Colombie-Britannique. La région d’Abbotsford-Mission a été éprouvée et a vu son indice reculer de 2,3 % au cours des 12 derniers mois. Par contre, l’indice de Kelowna s’est redressé à mi-parcours, gagnant 3,2 % en glissement annuel. Les cinq autres régions sont situées en Ontario. L’indice de Thunder Bay a chuté en février et sa progression sur 12 mois (0,6 %) est minime. À l’inverse, la progression a été assez constante à Windsor (11,5 %), London (7,2 %) et Kingston (13,4 %). Curieusement, la progression de l’indice de Sudbury (4,5 %) a été en majeure partie concentrée au cours du seul mois de mai.

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
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Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
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