Post Category: Rapports mensuels
April 20, 2020

AUTRE HAUSSE VIGOUREUSE DE L’INDICE COMPOSITE EN MARS

L’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a crû de 0,6 % en mars. Tout comme ce fut le cas en février, ce gain représente le double de la moyenne des hausses en mars au cours des dix années précédentes. L’indice a été tiré vers le haut par les régions métropolitaines d’Ottawa-Gatineau (1,1 %), Vancouver (1,0 %) et Toronto (0,9 %). Les hausses ont été plus modérées que la moyenne nationale à Hamilton (0,4 %), Québec (0,3 %), Montréal (0,2 %) et Halifax (0,1 %). L’indice est demeuré pratiquement stable à Victoria, alors qu’il reculait à Calgary (-0,1%), Edmonton (-0,6 %) et Winnipeg (-0,8 %).

L’indice de Vancouver n’a pas connu de baisse au cours des six derniers mois. La vilaine séquence de 14 mois de suite sans hausse qui avait précédé semble donc définitivement chose du passé, d’autant plus que le marché de la revente de Vancouver a retrouvé l’équilibre si on en croît le ratio des inscriptions aux ventes. L’indice a plutôt stagné à Victoria au cours des sept derniers mois. Il a chuté cinq fois au cours des six derniers mois à Calgary et Winnipeg, et quatre fois à Edmonton. Sauf pour le rebond à Vancouver, on note donc une faiblesse persistante dans les provinces de l’Ouest. Il en va tout autrement au centre du pays et dans l’Est. Ainsi, l’indice en était à un 12ème mois de suite sans baisse à Ottawa-Gatineau. Pendant cette période, une seule baisse mensuelle a été enregistrée à Toronto, et deux à Montréal, Hamilton et Halifax. L’indice est d’ailleurs à un sommet historique dans ces cinq dernières régions.

Au total, la croissance sur 12 mois de l’indice composite a été de 3,8 %, ce qui constitue un huitième mois d’accélération du glissement annuel, et le plus élevé depuis juin 2018. Durant cette période, l’indice composite a été tiré vers le haut par ceux d’Ottawa-Gatineau (11,6 %), Hamilton (8,5 %), Montréal (7,5 %), Toronto (6,4 %) et Halifax (6,3 %). La croissance a été sous la moyenne nationale à Victoria (3,6 %) et Winnipeg (0,3 %), tandis qu’il y a eu déflation du prix des maisons à Vancouver (-0,7 %), Québec (-0,7 %), Calgary (-1,3 %) et Edmonton (-2,7 %).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour les sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe. Sur les derniers 12 mois, certaines régions ont connu un départ fulgurant jusqu’à la mi-période suivi d’une accalmie. Ce fut le cas pour Peterborough (2,8 %), Barrie (3,8 %), Guelph (6,8 %) et St. Catharines (6,8 %). La progression de l’indice au cours des 12 derniers mois a été comparativement plus régulière à Oshawa (5,0 %), Brantford (8,4 %) et Kitchener (10,3 %).

Des indices sont disponibles pour sept autres régions métropolitaines, dont deux situées en Colombie-Britannique. La région d’Abbotsford-Mission a été éprouvée et a vu son indice reculer de 1,3 % au cours des 12 derniers mois. Pendant ce temps, l’indice de Kelowna (5,6 %) avait fière allure avant de perdre du terrain au cours des derniers mois. Les cinq autres régions sont situées en Ontario. L’indice de Thunder Bay (-2,3%) a chuté au cours des sept derniers mois. Les indices de Sudbury (4,8 %) et London (8,0 %) avaient démarré la période en lion avant de stagner au cours des six derniers mois. La progression des indices de Windsor (11,8 %) et Kingston (9,2 %) a été comparativement plus régulière.

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: