Post Category: Rapports mensuels
May 20, 2020

LE CHANT DU CYGNE AVANT QUE LA COVID-19 N’INFECTE LES INDICES?

L’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a crû de 1,3 % en avril. Tout comme ce fut le cas en février et mars, ce gain représente le double de la moyenne des hausses en avril au cours des dix années précédentes. L’indice a été tiré vers le haut par les régions métropolitaines d’Ottawa-Gatineau (2,4 %), Toronto (2,0 %), Halifax (1,8 %), Montréal (1,7 %), Victoria (1,2 %), Hamilton (1,1 %) et Winnipeg (0,9 %). La hausse à Vancouver (0,6 %) a été égale à la moyenne nationale, tandis qu’elle fut plus modérée à Québec (0,3 %) et Calgary (0,2 %). L’indice est demeuré stable à Edmonton.

L’indice de Vancouver n’a pas connu de baisse au cours des sept derniers mois, un renversement de tendance puisque l’indice n’avait pas enregistré de hausse au cours des 14 mois précédents. L’indice d’Ottawa-Gatineau a connu 12 gains au cours des 13 derniers mois, contre 11 gains pour les indices d’Hamilton, Toronto et Montréal. Mais à moyen terme, Montréal se distingue en termes de fréquence des hausses mensuelles, avec 35 gains au cours des 40 derniers mois, suivie de loin par Toronto et Hamilton avec 26 et Ottawa-Gatineau avec 25. Il est vrai cependant que la croissance des indices de ces trois dernières régions métropolitaines a été légèrement plus forte qu’à Montréal durant cette période.

Au total, la croissance sur 12 mois de l’indice composite a été de 5,3 %, ce qui constitue un neuvième mois d’accélération du glissement annuel, et le plus élevé depuis mai 2018. Durant cette période, l’indice composite a été tiré vers le haut par ceux d’Ottawa-Gatineau (13,2 %), Montréal (9,5 %), Halifax (9,5 %), Hamilton (8,9 %) et Toronto (8,2 %). La croissance a été sous la moyenne nationale à Victoria (4,6 %) et Winnipeg (3,2 %) et Vancouver (0,4 %). L’indice a fluctué sans tendance à Québec (0,0 %) tandis qu’il y a eu déflation du prix des maisons à Calgary (-0,8 %) et Edmonton (-2,8 %).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour les sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe. Ces indices ont tous enregistré des gains en avril. Ce fut aussi le cas sur l’ensemble des 12 derniers mois : Peterborough (3,2 %), Barrie (5,4 %), Guelph (7,7 %), Oshawa (7,8 %), Brantford (8,3 %), St. Catharines (10,7 %), Kitchener (11,4 %).

Les indices sont disponibles pour sept autres régions métropolitaines, dont deux situées en Colombie-Britannique, soit Abbotsford-Mission et Kelowna dont les indices ont progressé de 3,5 % et 5,0 % respectivement. Les cinq autres régions sont situées en Ontario. L’indice de Thunder Bay a chuté au cours des huit derniers mois et a perdu 6,0 % sur 12 mois. Durant cette période, les indices de Sudbury (5,8 %), Windsor (12,0 %), London (9,9 %) et Kingston (9,8 %) ont tous progressé.
Si on considère les 11 indices intégrés à l’indice composite et les 14 autres indices disponibles, avril aura connu la plus faible diffusion de baisses mensuelles (23 sur 25) depuis juin 2019. Cela dit, la situation peut évidemment se détériorer maintenant que l’économie canadienne est entrée en récession suite aux mesures sanitaires qui pont dû être prises pour contrer la propagation de la COVID-19.

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: