Post Category: Rapports mensuels
October 20, 2020

UNE DES PLUS FORTES HAUSSES DE L’INDICE POUR UN MOIS DE SEPTEMBRE

En septembre, l’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a crû de 1,1 %, soit la deuxième plus forte hausse pour un mois de septembre en 22 ans d’histoire. Plusieurs régions métropolitaines ont tiré l’indice vers le haut : Ottawa-Gatineau (2,3 %), Québec (2,2 %), Montréal (1,9 %), Hamilton (1,9 %), Edmonton (1,6 %), Toronto (1,0 %), Halifax (1,0 %) et Vancouver (0,6 %). La croissance mensuelle a été respectable à Winnipeg (0,4%) Victoria (0,3 %) et plus modérée à Calgary (0,1 %).

Un autre signe de raffermissement de l’activité est que pour la première fois depuis mai, le nombre de paires de ventes[1] utilisé pour calculer les 11 indices métropolitains était supérieur à celui d’il y a 12 mois, en l’occurrence de 29%. Cela fait écho à la flambée des ventes de logements rapportée par l’Association canadienne de l’immeuble à compter de juillet, en fait un rattrapage par rapport au sévère ralentissement subi lors des mois précédents en raison de la Covid-19. L’indice composite brut[2], une fois désaisonnalisé, a crû de 1,2 % en septembre, ce qui suggère que la tendance haussière de l’indice composite publié (lissé) pourrait persister.

Au total, la croissance sur 12 mois de l’indice composite a été de 6,7 % en septembre, une accélération par rapport à août. En glissement annuel, la croissance de l’indice composite a été tirée vers le haut par celles d’Ottawa-Gatineau (14,3 %), Halifax (12,2 %), Montréal (11,1 %), Hamilton (10,4 %) et Toronto (8,3 %). La croissance a été sous la moyenne nationale à Québec (5,4%), Vancouver (4,4 %), Victoria (3,9 %) et Winnipeg (3,1 %). L’indice a diminué à Edmonton (-0,8 %) et Calgary (‑2,6 %).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe, soit Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St.Catharines, Oshawa et Peterborough. L’indice du prix de maison a enregistré un gain mensuel en septembre dans ces sept régions, et la variation en glissement annuel a varié de 6,8 % à Guelph à 14,2% à Brantford.

Les indices sont disponibles pour 13 autres régions métropolitaines, dont deux situées en Colombie-Britannique, soit Abbotsford-Mission et Kelowna, Lethbridge en Alberta, Trois-Rivières et Sherbrooke au Québec, Moncton et Saint John au Nouveau Brunswick (province qui incidemment connaît un record de ventes de logements). L’indice de ces sept régions a connu une croissance en septembre, que ce soit sur une base mensuelle ou en glissement annuel. Sur 12 mois, les croissances ont varié de 0,7% % à Lethbridge à 8,2 % à Moncton.

Les six autres régions sont situées en Ontario, soit London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay et Sudbury. Les indices lissés ont progressé partout sur une base mensuelle et en glissement annuel. Sur ce dernier plan, les avancées ont varié de 5,5 % à Thunder Bay à 10,7 % à Kingston.

Le tableau à la fin du rapport montre que les indices de toutes les 31 régions métropolitaines couvertes ont enregistré un gain mensuel en septembre. Il s’agit de la première diffusion unanime de gains mensuels depuis 2009, soit depuis que nous disposons d’un indice pour chacune de ces 31 régions métropolitaines.

[1] Rappelons que l’indice de prix de maison Teranet-Banque Nationale est basé sur la méthodologie des ventes répétées, c’est-à-dire sur la croissance du prix constatée au cours des deux dernières ventes d’un même logement.

[2] Les indices publiés sont lissés, puisqu’ils résultent de la croissance moyenne des indices bruts au cours des trois derniers mois. Pour en savoir plus sur la méthodologie, veuillez vous rendre sur le site  www.housepriceindex.ca

 

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Économiste principal
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
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Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
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