En mars, l’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a crû de 1,5 % comparativement au mois précédent. Il s’agit d’une croissance des prix nettement plus rapide que celle observée en février (0,5 %). Trois régions métropolitaines ont tiré l’indice vers le haut : Halifax (3,3 %), Hamilton (2,8 %) et Toronto (1,9 %). La croissance a été en ligne avec l’indice composite à Vancouver (1,5 %), mais a toutefois été plus modérée à Winnipeg (1,1 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (1,1 %), Montréal (1,1 %), Victoria (1,0 %), Calgary (0,9 %), Québec (0,9 %) et Edmonton (0,3 %). Il s’agit de la première fois depuis novembre 2020 que des gains furent observés dans toutes les régions comprises dans l’indice composite.
La croissance des prix est à mettre en lien avec celle des ventes de logements rapportées depuis quelques mois par l’Association canadienne de l’immeuble. Cela se reflète par un septième mois de suite où le nombre de paires de ventes[1] utilisé pour calculer les 11 indices métropolitains était supérieur à celui d’il y a 12 mois. L’indice composite brut, une fois désaisonnalisé, a crû de 2,7 % en mars, ce qui suggère que la tendance haussière de l’indice composite publié (lissé) pourrait persister.
Au total, la croissance sur 12 mois de l’indice composite a été de 10,8 % en mars, une huitième accélération de suite et la plus forte croissance depuis septembre 2017. En glissement annuel, la croissance de l’indice composite a été tirée vers le haut par cinq régions métropolitaines : Halifax (22,5 %), Hamilton (20,9 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (19,0 %), Montréal (16,1 %) et Toronto (11,2 %). La croissance a été sous la moyenne nationale à Victoria (10,5 %), Québec (8,1 %), Vancouver (7,9 %), Winnipeg (7,8 %), Edmonton (2,9 %) et Calgary (1,8 %).
En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe, soit Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa et Peterborough. L’indice du prix de maison a enregistré un gain mensuel en mars dans ces sept régions, la variation en glissement annuel allant de 20,8 % à Kitchener à 24,9 % à Oshawa.
Les indices sont disponibles pour 13 autres régions métropolitaines, dont deux situées en Colombie-Britannique, soit Abbotsford-Mission et Kelowna, Lethbridge en Alberta, Trois-Rivières et Sherbrooke au Québec, Moncton et Saint John au Nouveau-Brunswick. Sur une base mensuelle, l’indice a connu une croissance dans l’ensemble de ces régions en mars, à l’exception de Lethbridge (-0,8 %). Les régions d’Abbotsford-Mission et de Saint John se sont démarquées du lot avec une croissance de 3,0 % par rapport au mois précédent. Sur 12 mois, il y a eu croissance de l’indice dans chacune de ces régions, le glissement annuel variant de 3,1 % à Lethbridge à 19,9 % à Moncton.
Les six autres régions sont situées en Ontario, soit London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay et Sudbury. Les indices ont progressé partout sur une base mensuelle sauf à Kingston (-0,8 %). En glissement annuel, les avancées ont varié de 11,0 % à Thunder Bay à 27,4 % à Belleville.
[1] Rappelons que l’indice de prix de maison Teranet-Banque Nationale est basé sur la méthodologie des ventes répétées, c’est-à-dire sur la croissance du prix constatée au cours des deux dernières ventes d’un même logement.
Metropolitan area
Index Level
% change m/m
% change y/y
From peak
Peak date
Report By:
Daren King
Économiste
Groupe économie et stratégie Banque Nationale du Canada
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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.
The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.
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