Post Category: Rapports mensuels
July 20, 2021

CROISSANCE ANNUELLE RECORD DES PRIX EN JUIN

En juin, l’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a crû de 2.7 % comparativement au mois précédent. Bien qu’il s’agisse d’une croissance mensuelle presque record, il s’agit de la première fois depuis janvier que la croissance mensuelle décélère par rapport à celle observée le mois précédent (2.8% en mai). Cinq régions métropolitaines ont tiré l’indice vers le haut en juin: Ottawa-Gatineau (4.0 %), Hamilton (3.8 %), Victoria (3.6 %), Halifax (3.5 %) et Montréal (3.4 %). La croissance fut égale à la moyenne nationale à Vancouver et Toronto, alors qu’elle fut plus modérée à Calgary (1.4 %), Winnipeg (1.3 %), Québec (1.3 %) et Edmonton (1.1 %). Il s’agit d’un quatrième mois consécutif que des gains furent observés dans toutes les régions comprises dans l’indice composite.

La croissance des prix est à mettre en lien avec celle des ventes de logements rapportées depuis quelques mois par l’Association canadienne de l’immeuble. Cela se reflète par un dixième mois de suite où le nombre de paires de ventes[1] utilisé pour calculer les 11 indices métropolitains était supérieur à celui d’il y a 12 mois. Toutefois, les plus récentes statistiques sur le marché résidentiel montrent que le rythme des transactions est en train de se modérer, ce qui pourrait amener la croissance des prix à ralentir dans les mois à venir.

Au total, la croissance sur 12 mois de l’indice Teranet – Banque NationaleMC composite a été de 16.0 % en juin, une onzième accélération de suite et la plus forte croissance annuelle jamais enregistrée. En glissement annuel, la croissance de l’indice composite a été tirée vers le haut par cinq régions métropolitaines : Halifax (30.8 %), Hamilton (28.0 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (25.8 %), Montréal (19.4 %) et Victoria (18.5 %). La croissance a été sous la moyenne à Toronto (15.9 %), Vancouver (14.7 %), Québec (10.8 %), Winnipeg (9.9 %), Calgary (6.0 %) et Edmonton (5.5 %).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe, soit Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa et Peterborough. L’indice du prix de maison a enregistré un gain mensuel en juin dans ces sept régions, la variation en glissement annuel allant de 30.0 % à Peterborough à 35.4 % à Barrie.

Les indices sont disponibles pour 13 autres régions métropolitaines, dont deux situées en Colombie-Britannique, soit Abbotsford-Mission et Kelowna, Lethbridge en Alberta, Trois-Rivières et Sherbrooke au Québec, Moncton et Saint John au Nouveau-Brunswick. Sur une base mensuelle, l’indice a connu une croissance dans l’ensemble de ces régions en juin. Les régions de Moncton et de Trois-Rivières se sont démarquées du lot avec des croissances de 4.7 % et 4.5 % respectivement par rapport au mois précédent. Sur 12 mois, il y a eu croissance de l’indice dans chacune de ces régions, le glissement annuel variant de 2.0 % à Lethbridge à 29.6 % à Abbotsford-Mission.

Les six autres régions sont situées en Ontario, soit London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay et Sudbury. Les indices ont progressé partout sur une base mensuelle. En glissement annuel, les avancées ont varié de 18.8 % à Thunder Bay à 34.7 % à Belleville.

[1] Rappelons que l’indice de prix de maison Teranet-Banque Nationale est basé sur la méthodologie des ventes répétées, c’est-à-dire sur la croissance du prix constatée au cours des deux dernières ventes d’un même logement.

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Daren King
Économiste
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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In no event shall any of NBC, Teranet, their respective affiliates, any of their or their direct or indirect information providers nor any other third party involved in, or related to, compiling, computing or creating any of the Index Information (collectively, the "Index Data Provider Parties") have any liability to any person or entity for any damages, whether direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, loss of use, lost profits or revenues or any other economic loss) arising in any manner out of your use or inability to use any of the Index Data contained in this monthly report, even if such party might have anticipated, or was advised or notified of, the possibility of such damages.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

In addition to their informational role, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ was developed to be a benchmark for financial professionals. Teranet and NBC offer licenses covering all index-linked products.

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For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: