Post Category: Rapports mensuels
November 17, 2021

LE PRIX DES PROPRIÉTÉS AU NEUTRE EN OCTOBRE

En octobre, l’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC est demeuré inchangé comparativement au mois précédent. Cela fait maintenant cinq mois consécutifs où l’augmentation mensuelle des prix est moins forte que le mois précédent. Sept régions métropolitaines ont tiré l’indice vers le haut en octobre: Hamilton (0.9%), Victoria (0.7%), Halifax (0.5%), Edmonton (0.3%), Calgary (0.2%), Québec (0.2%) et Toronto (0.1%). Les prix sont demeurés stables à Winnipeg, alors que des baisses furent observées à Montréal (-0.2%), Vancouver (-0.4%) et Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.0%). Il s’agit de la deuxième fois en huit mois où des gains ne furent pas observés dans toutes les régions comprises dans l’indice composite.

Le ralentissement de la croissance des prix est à mettre en lien avec celui des ventes de logements rapportées depuis quelques mois par l’Association canadienne de l’immeuble. En effet, en analysant la croissance sur 12 mois du nombre de paires de ventes[1] utilisé pour calculer l’indice composite, il s’agit de la première fois en quatorze mois où elles n’étaient pas en augmentation. Toutefois, les prix pourraient recommencer à augmenter dans les mois à venir étant donné l’offre très limitée de propriétés à vendre.

Au total, la croissance sur 12 mois de l’indice Teranet – Banque NationaleMC composite a été de 15.8% en octobre. Après avoir atteint une croissance annuelle record en août, il s’agit d’un deuxième mois consécutif où la croissance est moins forte que le mois précédent. En glissement annuel, la croissance de l’indice composite a été tirée vers le haut par six régions métropolitaines : Halifax (30.3%), Hamilton (26.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (20.9 %), Victoria (18.9 %), Montréal (17.1 %) et Toronto (16.3%). La croissance fut moins vigoureuse que la moyenne à Vancouver (14.5 %), Winnipeg (11.3%), Calgary (8.5%), Québec (8.4%) et Edmonton (5.5%).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe, soit Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa et Peterborough. L’indice du prix de maison a enregistré un gain mensuel en octobre dans tous ces régions sauf à Peterborough, la variation en glissement annuel allant de 26.0% à Kitchener à 32.0% à Barrie.

Les indices sont disponibles pour 13 autres régions métropolitaines, dont deux situées en Colombie-Britannique, soit Abbotsford-Mission et Kelowna, Lethbridge en Alberta, Trois-Rivières et Sherbrooke au Québec, Moncton et Saint John au Nouveau-Brunswick. Sur une base mensuelle, l’indice a diminué dans quatre de ces sept régions en octobre. Les régions de Moncton, Sherbrooke et Kelowna se sont tout de même démarquées du lot avec des croissances de 1.9%, 1.6% et 1.3% respectivement par rapport au mois précédent. Sur 12 mois, il y a eu croissance de l’indice dans chacune de ces régions, le glissement annuel variant de 5.2% à Lethbridge à 31.5% à Moncton.

Les six autres régions sont situées en Ontario, soit London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay et Sudbury. Sur une base mensuelle, les indices ont progressé partout sauf à Kingston. La progression d’une année à l’autre varie de 14.3 % à Thunder Bay à 39.8% à Belleville.

[1] Rappelons que l’indice de prix de maison Teranet-Banque Nationale est basé sur la méthodologie des ventes répétées, c’est-à-dire sur la croissance du prix constatée au cours des deux dernières ventes d’un même logement.

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Daren King
Économiste
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
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Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
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