Post Category: Rapports mensuels
December 17, 2021

L’AUGMENTATION DES PRIX REPREND EN NOVEMBRE

En novembre, l’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a augmenté de 0.4% comparativement au mois précédent, après être demeuré inchangé en octobre. Sept régions métropolitaines ont tiré l’indice vers le haut en octobre: Halifax (1.2%), Victoria (1.0%), Toronto (0.8%), Hamilton (0.6%), Vancouver (0.4%), Québec (0.3%) et Calgary (0.1%). Les prix sont demeurés stables à Winnipeg et Montréal, alors que des baisses furent observées à Edmonton (-0.3%) et Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.1%). Il s’agit seulement de la troisième fois en neuf mois où des gains ne furent pas observés dans toutes les régions comprises dans l’indice composite.

La reprise de la croissance des prix est à mettre en parallèle avec la vigueur récente sur le marché de la revente. En effet, avec la récente hausse des taux d’intérêt hypothécaires et les augmentations anticipées l’an prochain, certaines personnes ayant sécurisé des taux d’intérêt avantageux ont probablement devancé des transactions, expliquant en partie la vigueur des derniers mois. De plus, le manque criant d’offre sur le marché exerce assurément une pression à la hausse sur les prix qui devrait se poursuivre à court terme.

Au total, la croissance sur 12 mois de l’indice Teranet – Banque NationaleMC composite a été de 15.2% en novembre. Après avoir atteint une croissance annuelle record de 18.4% en août, il s’agit d’un troisième mois consécutif où la croissance est moins forte que le mois précédent. En glissement annuel, la croissance de l’indice composite a été tirée vers le haut par six régions métropolitaines : Halifax (29.8%), Hamilton (24.9%), Victoria (18.8 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (18.0 %), Toronto (16.3%) et Montréal (15.5 %). La croissance fut moins vigoureuse que la moyenne à Vancouver (13.9 %), Winnipeg (10.6%), Calgary (8.3%), Québec (8.0%) et Edmonton (4.8%).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe, soit Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa et Peterborough. L’indice du prix de maison a enregistré un gain mensuel en novembre dans toutes ces régions sauf à Peterborough, la variation en glissement annuel allant de 24.8% à Guelph à 30.4% à Barrie et Brantford.

Les indices sont disponibles pour 13 autres régions métropolitaines, dont deux situées en Colombie-Britannique, soit Abbotsford-Mission et Kelowna, Lethbridge en Alberta, Trois-Rivières et Sherbrooke au Québec, Moncton et Saint John au Nouveau-Brunswick. Sur une base mensuelle, l’indice a diminué dans deux de ces sept régions en novembre. Les régions de Saint John et Kelowna se sont tout de même démarquées du lot avec des croissances de 2.5% et 2.4% respectivement par rapport au mois précédent. Sur 12 mois, il y a eu croissance de l’indice dans chacune de ces régions, le glissement annuel variant de 5.1% à Lethbridge à 31.6% à Moncton.

Les six autres régions sont situées en Ontario, soit London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay et Sudbury. Sur une base mensuelle, les indices ont progressé partout sauf à London et Belleville. La progression d’une année à l’autre varie entre 16.6 % à Thunder Bay et 34.2% à Belleville.

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Daren King
Économiste
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

In addition to their informational role, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ was developed to be a benchmark for financial professionals. Teranet and NBC offer licenses covering all index-linked products.

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For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: