Post Category: Rapports mensuels
January 19, 2022

L’AUGMENTATION DES PRIX SE RAFFERMIT EN DÉCEMBRE

En décembre, l’indice composite national de prix de maison Teranet – Banque NationaleMC a augmenté de 0.8% comparativement au mois précédent, soit une deuxième augmentation mensuelle consécutive. Huit régions métropolitaines ont tiré l’indice vers le haut en décembre: Victoria (2.1%), Halifax (1.9%), Hamilton (1.2%), Montréal (1.1%), Québec (1.1%), Vancouver (1.0%), Toronto (0.9%) et Calgary (0.3%). Des baisses de prix furent observées à Winnipeg (-0.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.3%) et Edmonton (-0.4%).

La reprise de la croissance des prix est à mettre en parallèle avec la vigueur récente sur le marché de la revente. En effet, avec la récente hausse des taux d’intérêt hypothécaires et les augmentations anticipées l’an prochain, certaines personnes ayant sécurisé des taux d’intérêt avantageux ont probablement devancé des transactions, expliquant en partie la vigueur des derniers mois. De plus, le manque criant d’offre sur le marché exerce assurément une pression à la hausse sur les prix qui devrait se poursuivre à court terme.

Au total, la croissance sur 12 mois de l’indice Teranet – Banque NationaleMC composite a été de 15.5% en décembre. Après avoir connu une croissance annuelle de moins en moins forte lors des trois derniers mois, celle-ci est repartie à la hausse en décembre. En glissement annuel, la croissance de l’indice composite a été tirée vers le haut par six régions métropolitaines : Halifax (30.7%), Hamilton (25.4%), Victoria (19.7%), Toronto (16.8%), Ottawa-Gatineau (16.3%) et Montréal (15.6 %). La croissance fut moins vigoureuse que la moyenne à Vancouver (14.2%), Québec (10.4%), Winnipeg (10.1%), Calgary (8.5%) et Edmonton (4.3%).

En plus de Toronto et Hamilton qui sont intégrées à l’indice composite, des indices existent pour sept autres régions métropolitaines du Golden Horseshoe, soit Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa et Peterborough. L’indice du prix de maison a enregistré un gain mensuel en décembre dans toutes ces régions sauf à Peterborough, la variation en glissement annuel allant de 25.0% à Guelph à 30.9% à Barrie.

Les indices sont disponibles pour 11 autres régions métropolitaines, dont deux situées en Colombie-Britannique, soit Abbotsford-Mission et Kelowna, Lethbridge en Alberta, Trois-Rivières et Sherbrooke au Québec. Sur une base mensuelle, l’indice a augmenté dans quatre de ces cinq régions en décembre. La région d’Abbotsford-Mission s’est tout de même démarquée du lot avec une croissance de 2.1% par rapport au mois précédent. Sur 12 mois, il y a eu croissance de l’indice dans chacune de ces régions, le glissement annuel variant de 4.6% à Lethbridge à 28.3% à Abbotsford-Mission.

Les six autres régions sont situées en Ontario, soit London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay et Sudbury. Sur une base mensuelle, les indices ont progressé dans la moitié de ces régions. La progression d’une année à l’autre varie entre 16.2 % à Thunder Bay et 32.4% à Belleville.

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Daren King
Économiste
Groupe économie et stratégie
Banque Nationale du Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

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In no event shall any of NBC, Teranet, their respective affiliates, any of their or their direct or indirect information providers nor any other third party involved in, or related to, compiling, computing or creating any of the Index Information (collectively, the "Index Data Provider Parties") have any liability to any person or entity for any damages, whether direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, loss of use, lost profits or revenues or any other economic loss) arising in any manner out of your use or inability to use any of the Index Data contained in this monthly report, even if such party might have anticipated, or was advised or notified of, the possibility of such damages.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

In addition to their informational role, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ was developed to be a benchmark for financial professionals. Teranet and NBC offer licenses covering all index-linked products.

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For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: