Post Category: Monthly Reports
January 14, 2019
Home prices trended down in the second half of 2018

The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM for December was down 0.3% from the previous month.[1] It was the third consecutive monthly retreat. The component indexes were down for seven of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed: Edmonton (−1.4%), Vancouver (−1.2%), Winnipeg (−0.9%), Calgary (−0.6%), Victoria (−0.4%), Hamilton (−0.4%) and Quebec City (−0.4%). Indexes were […]

Post Category: News and Press Releases
January 09, 2019
Important Update: Removal of Composite 6 Index Data

The Composite 6, which was first launched in December 2008 was initially built to capture the aggregate performance of the Canadian housing market with the richest available data at that time. In 2011, we expanded the Composite 6 by five new cities and reviewed and refined the geographic territory of each city to better align with the Census Metropolitan Area definitions provided by Statistics Canada. The Composite 11 was built with this information in hand and more precisely reflects the rate of change of single-family home prices in Canada.

As a result, the last public report that will contain the Composite 6 index (C6) data will be March 13th, 2019.  After this date, only Composite 11 will be made available in the public sphere. If you still require the Composite 6 data, it will be available as a commercial offering. You can contact us to discuss options to continue receiving the data. If you have any questions or concerns, please reach out to us at info@housepriceindex.ca

Post Category: Monthly Reports
December 12, 2018
Home price indexes down in November in all markets except Quebec City, Halifax and Victoria

In November the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.3% from the previous month.[1] A November decline is not the norm – this was only the fourth in 20 years of index history. It was the second consecutive monthly decline. November’s retreat was quite broad-based: component indexes were down on the month […]

Post Category: News and Press Releases
December 12, 2018
Home prices: Second monthly drop in a row

Home price weakness in some major metropolitan areas is evidenced by a second
consecutive decline in the national Composite Index. In the most expensive markets,
new mortgage qualification rules and the rise in interest rates have cooled demand
significantly. For instance, in Vancouver, November was a fourth month in a row without
a rise in home prices, for a cumulative drop of 1.8%. In Toronto, prices declined over the
last three months, for a total loss of 0.4%. Markets are also weak in Alberta, where prices
did not rise for a fifth month in a row in Calgary, and for a third consecutive month in
Edmonton (left chart), for cumulative declines of 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. There are,
however, some areas of strength in the country. In Montreal, for example, home sales
are at a record level so far in 2018 (right chart). With interest rates set to rise more
slowly than previously thought, hopes for a soft landing of the Canadian home resale
market are still warranted.

To read the full report, please click on the link below:

December 2018

Post Category: Monthly Reports
November 15, 2018
Home price index down in October in all component markets except Montreal

In October the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.4% from the previous month.[1] An October decline is not the norm – this was only the fourth in 20 years of index history. It was also the first index decline in eight months. The most striking aspect of the retreat is its […]

Post Category: News and Press Releases
November 15, 2018
Home prices fall in October

Home prices are showing signs of weakness at the national level (left chart), but the
market is far from being homogeneous. For example, Vancouver showed no gain for a
third month in a row, for a cumulative loss of 1.2%. Moreover, the weakness extends to
condos as well as to more expensive dwellings. This is consistent with the fact that since
the beginning of the year, home sales declined markedly in both segments. For Toronto,
the picture is mixed, with condos prices still remaining on an upward trend. Montreal is
at the other end of the spectrum. The second largest metropolitan region in Canada
enjoyed the most vigourous home resale market over the last few months (right chart).
But with interest rates set to rise again in the coming months, we don’t see much upside
for home prices.

To read the full report, please click on the link below:

November 2018

Post Category: Research
November 15, 2018
Housing affordability worsens again in Q3 2018

In Q3, affordability worsened in no less than 9 out of ten urban markets which explains the
13th consecutive deterioration of our urban composite index. Expensive housing markets
such as Vancouver and Toronto slowed down markedly in 2018 and home prices even
declined in Q3 due to the combined effect of rising mortgage rates (up for a fifth consecutive
quarter) and macro prudential measures. Despite lower home prices, homebuyer
affordability failed to improve as wages were down in those markets (left chart). Elsewhere,
Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau experienced the sharpest deteriorations in affordability
among urban centers in Q3 but for another reason: home prices surged respectively by 2.1%
and 2.5% Q/Q. These markets appear to be unaffected by rising interest rates and tighter
credit standards as shown by resale market conditions being strongly tilted in favor of sellers.
Looking at the national picture, while a significant portion of home buyers have been priced
out of single-family homes, demand is currently strong for condos as shown by prices rising
6.8% over the past year (non-condo prices are flat). As a result, the affordability deterioration
was more pronounced in this segment (vs. non-condo) in each of the last four quarters (right
chart).

Full Report

Post Category: Monthly Reports
October 12, 2018
National Composite Index: Flat in September

In September the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  came in flat from the month before,[1] matching the historical average for September since 2010. Only five of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed gains, the weakest diffusion in six months. These were Winnipeg (1.1%), Montreal (0.5%), Victoria (0.5%), Hamilton (0.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.1%). For […]

Post Category: News and Press Releases
October 12, 2018
Weakness in Vancouver and Calgary

When seasonal effects are removed, the Composite price index edged up in September, recovering some of the ground lost in previous months. While this applies in particular to Toronto, it is not the case for Vancouver and Calgary, where the seasonally adjusted indices extended a string of declines (left chart). This downtrend in home prices is consistent with the weakness in home sales reported by the respective real estate boards of these two metropolitan areas. At the opposite, seasonally adjusted indices extended a string of solid increases over the last few months in Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau (right chart). Again, this is consistent with the performance of the home resale market. In Montreal, home sales in September were up 8% from a year ago and at their highest level for a month of September in 9 years. In Ottawa-Gatineau, the market is almost in the “favorable to sellers” territory judging from the new-listings-to-sales ratio.

The attached report along with selected research from the Economics and Strategy Group can also be accessed by clicking the link below:

October 2018

Post Category: Research
September 12, 2018
Affordability erodes again in Q2

Mortgage interest rates were on the rise for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q2. As a
result, affordability worsened in no less than 7 out of ten urban markets which explains
the 12th consecutive deterioration of our urban composite index. Unsurprisingly, the rise
in interest rates hit harder for the priciest markets in the country (left chart). Thankfully,
income gains in British Columbia mitigated the impact on affordability for its two major
cities. Nevertheless, Victoria experienced a sharp deterioration in both condo and noncondo
segments as prices continue to swell despite more restrictive lending standards
imposed by OSFI since January. The slowdown in the resale market has begun to
impact prices in Vancouver and Toronto during the quarter. Indeed, home prices
experienced their weakest gain in almost four years in Vancouver while Toronto posted
a decline. That being said, both cities remain a painful environment for new homebuyers
(right chart) and this is unlikely to change in the short term as central banks remain in a
tightening mode.

Read Research Report

For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Kan Zhu
Leader, Data & Advisory Solutions
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 416-360-8863 x 2270
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416.869.7124
Email: