Reports – Page 2 – House Price Index

Post Category: News and Economic Reports

December 13, 2023

Upcoming Teranet-National Bank HPI Composite 11 Methodological Changes

To provide a national index that is even more consistent with activity in Canada’s real estate market, we will be adjusting our calculation methodology.

Currently, the National Composite index is calculated as a weighted average of price index levels of the eleven Census Metropolitan Area’s (“CMA”) comprising it. The weights are based on the aggregate dollar value of dwellings retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census.

Effective December 19, 2023 the following methodological changes will be in place:

The weights will be updated periodically to reflect changes in the aggregate dollar value of dwellings in Statistics Canada’s census. Index history from February 1999 will be divided into six reference periods corresponding to census years. Each reference period will have its own set of weights for the composite index calculation based on the most recent census data available during the period.
Weights will be applied to the monthly variation in the index rather than the index level.
Historical C11 index values will be recalculated to reflect this methodological change.

Why are we making these updates?

We want to emphasize that these methodological changes are not dramatic nor will they change the story of Canadian single-family home prices over the past 25 years. The difference in C11 between the current and new methodological approaches is minimal. We believe that the new methodology for calculating the composite index offers several advantages:

The country is experiencing divergent demographic growth across regions which means that the Canadian real estate market is constantly evolving. Rather than keeping the weights constant, a rebalancing of the weights of the different CMA’s included in the composite index will be carried out periodically using the latest census data. This ensures that the index is more representative of the Canadian real estate market and its variability over time.
The updated methodology is similar to that of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Schiller Index in the United States, facilitating comparison between the two markets.

The Teranet and National Bank teams are here to support you and answer any questions you may have ahead of these changes. If you have any questions or concerns, please contact your account manager.

November 17, 2023

Canada: Home prices start to drop again in October

After rising for the past five months, the Teranet-National Bank Composite Index^™ started to fall again in October, as property prices across the country declined by 0.4% over the month in a context where the resale market is losing momentum. Indeed, the rise in interest rates in recent months, which exacerbates affordability problems, combined with a less buoyant job market, have contributed to the slowdown in the real estate market. Indeed, market conditions have eased across the country, so that the number of months of inventory rose to 4.1 in October, a level similar to that prevailing before the pandemic, but still lower for the moment than the historical norm. What’s more, the weakness of prices in October was widespread across the country, with 58% of the 31 cities covered experiencing a sharper fall or weaker growth than the previous month. In the months ahead, prices are likely to continue to decline, while interest rates remain high and the economic context will be less favourable, representing headwinds for the sector despite the support of historical demographic growth.

November 2023

November 17, 2023

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index down in October

MONTH-OVER-MONTH After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, declined by 0.4% from September to October, the first decrease following five consecutive monthly increases. In October, four of the 11 CMAs included in the index experienced decreases: Toronto (-1.6%), Edmonton (-1.2%), Vancouver (-1.1%) and […]

October 20, 2023

Canada: Home price rises moderate in September

In September, the Teranet-National Bank Composite Index continues to grow, so that house prices are now just 1.6% off their April 2022 peak, a clear improvement on the record 8.6% decline we saw in April 2023. However, with real estate activity slowing, price growth moderated compared to the previous month for the third consecutive month, with September’s 0.7% increase less than half that seen in August. Of the 31 cities covered in September, 71% experienced slower growth than the previous month, the most generalized slowdown since July 2022 and the second most widespread in the last nine years. Given the growing impact of policy rate hikes, the recent increase in longer-term bond rates and the less buoyant economic context, there is reason to believe that price declines could occur by the end of the year. However, they should remain limited thanks to the support of historical demographic growth and the persistent lack of housing supply.

October 2023

October 20, 2023

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index growth moderates in September

MONTH-OVER-MONTH After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price IndexTM, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, grew by 0.7% from August to September, the fifth consecutive monthly increase, but at a much slower pace than the previous month. In September, all 11 CMAs included in the index recorded increases, with the […]

September 20, 2023

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index sees another solid rise in August

MONTH-OVER-MONTH Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose by 0.6% from July to August, the sixth consecutive monthly increase. After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ grew by 1.6% from July to August, the fourth consecutive monthly increase, but slower […]

September 20, 2023

Canada: Housing prices set to moderate in coming months

With renewed activity in the residential real estate market in recent months, the seasonally adjusted Teranet-National Bank composite index rose by 1.6% from July to August, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. As a result, the composite index is now just 2.1% below its all-time peak of April 2022, following a record cumulative decline of 8.6% over one year. The widespread nature of August’s rise is also noteworthy, as this is the first time since March 2021 that monthly increases have been observed in all the CMAs included in the composite index. However, there is reason to believe that this strength is likely to be short-lived, given the slowdown observed in the resale market over the last two months in connection with the renewal of the Bank of Canada’s monetary tightening cycle. Although price declines are expected in the coming months due to the growing impact of interest rates and the less favourable economic context, property price decreases should remain limited thanks to the support of historical demographic growth and the persistent lack of housing supply.

September 2023

August 18, 2023

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index rises sharply in July

MONTH-OVER-MONTH Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose by 1.8% from June to July, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ rose by 2.4% from June to July, the fourth consecutive monthly increase and […]

August 18, 2023

Canada: Spectacular jump in house prices in July

Following the recovery of the residential real estate market in recent months, the Teranet-National Bank composite index jumped by 2.4% from June to July, the fourth consecutive monthly increase, but also the second highest price increase ever recorded in a single month after the one observed in July 2006. After a cumulative decline of 8.6% since peaking in April 2022, recent rises in the composite index have erased a part of this correction, which now stands at just 3.8%. Interestingly, the recent upturn in prices has been greatest in the cities that have seen the biggest corrections. However, only four of the 32 CMAs covered have completely erased their price declines: Saint John, Lethbridge, Quebec City and Trois-Rivières. Prices could continue to rise in the third quarter, supported by strong demographic growth and the lack of supply of properties on the market. That said, the deterioration in affordability with recent interest rate hikes in a less buoyant economic context should represent a headwind for house prices thereafter.

August 2023

July 20, 2023

Canada: Spectacular jump in house prices in June

Following the recovery of the residential housing market in recent months, the Teranet-National Bank composite HPI jumped 2.2% from May to June, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, but also the largest price rise in a single month since November 2006. After a cumulative decline of 8.7% since peaking in April 2022, recent rises in the composite index have erased part of this correction, which now stands at just 6.2%. This rebound is even more impressive given that 81% of cities covered in June saw an increase during the month, the best diffusion of growth since the composite index peaked last year. While prices may continue to be supported by strong demographic growth and the lack of supply of properties on the market to continue their progression in the third quarter, the Bank of Canada’s recent rate hikes and the economic weakness expected in subsequent quarters will represent a headwind for house prices thereafter.

July 2023