In May the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.9% from the previous month, a fifth consecutive monthly increase. The 0.9% rise was slightly below the May average of 1.1% over the last 14 years. This was because Calgary prices fell 3.3% from April, the largest monthly drop recorded for that region, subtracting 0.3 percentage points from the gain of the composite index. The monthly slide left Calgary prices the lowest since April of last year. By contrast, all 10 of the other metropolitan markets entering into the composite index were up on the month, a breadth last seen in August 2014. Prices were up 2.3% in Halifax, 1.6% in Toronto and Montreal, 1.5% in Ottawa-Gatineau, 1.3% in Vancouver, 0.9% in Quebec City, 0.6% in Hamilton and Edmonton, 0.5% in Victoria and 0.2% in Winnipeg. The Ottawa-Gatineau gain came after a run of eight declines in nine months. In the other markets east of Toronto, namely Montreal, Quebec City and Halifax, prices have risen rather sharply over the past three months after downward corrections that lasted from four to seven months depending on the case. This suggests that these markets are stimulated by historically low mortgage rates. The composite index was at an all-time high in May, as were the indexes of four of the 11 markets surveyed – Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton and Quebec City.
- Composite 11
- All Metropolitan Indices
- British Columbia
In May the composite index was up 4.6% from a year earlier, an acceleration from April. The 12-month gain was well above the countrywide average in Toronto (7.6%) and in Hamilton and Vancouver (6.2%). In Victoria and Edmonton (4.8%) it was close to the average. In Quebec City (2.9%), Montreal (1.5%), Winnipeg (1.0%) and Halifax (0.4%) it was well below the average. Prices were down from a year earlier in Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.9%) and, for the first time since July 2011, in Calgary (−1.4%).
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Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada