Post Category: Monthly Reports
June 12, 2015

Home Prices Up 0.9% In May

In May the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.9% from the previous month, a fifth consecutive monthly increase. The 0.9% rise was slightly below the May average of 1.1% over the last 14 years. This was because Calgary prices fell 3.3% from April, the largest monthly drop recorded for that region, subtracting 0.3 percentage points from the gain of the composite index. The monthly slide left Calgary prices the lowest since April of last year. By contrast, all 10 of the other metropolitan markets entering into the composite index were up on the month, a breadth last seen in August 2014. Prices were up 2.3% in Halifax, 1.6% in Toronto and Montreal, 1.5% in Ottawa-Gatineau, 1.3% in Vancouver, 0.9% in Quebec City, 0.6% in Hamilton and Edmonton, 0.5% in Victoria and 0.2% in Winnipeg. The Ottawa-Gatineau gain came after a run of eight declines in nine months. In the other markets east of Toronto, namely Montreal, Quebec City and Halifax, prices have risen rather sharply over the past three months after downward corrections that lasted from four to seven months depending on the case. This suggests that these markets are stimulated by historically low mortgage rates. The composite index was at an all-time high in May, as were the indexes of four of the 11 markets surveyed – Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton and Quebec City.

In May the composite index was up 4.6% from a year earlier, an acceleration from April. The 12-month gain was well above the countrywide average in Toronto (7.6%) and in Hamilton and Vancouver (6.2%). In Victoria and Edmonton (4.8%) it was close to the average. In Quebec City (2.9%), Montreal (1.5%), Winnipeg (1.0%) and Halifax (0.4%) it was well below the average. Prices were down from a year earlier in Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.9%) and, for the first time since July 2011, in Calgary (−1.4%).

Metropolitan area Index Level
% change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2011 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.
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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Kan Zhu
Leader, Data & Advisory Solutions
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 416-360-8863 x 2270
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: