Post Category: Monthly Reports
July 13, 2016

Home Prices Up 2.3% In June

In June, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 2.3% from the previous month, the largest June increase since the Index began in 1999. Prices were up in 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. Gains exceeded that of the countrywide index in six markets: Victoria (4.4%), Halifax (3.7%), Toronto (3.3%), Vancouver (2.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (2.6%) and Hamilton (2.4%). Though less than the countrywide average, gains were also strong in Quebec City (1.7%), Winnipeg (1.3%) and Montreal (1.0%).

Prices were clearly riding recent high volumes of existing-home sales in almost every market. Only in Calgary was the gain modest (0.2%), and in Edmonton prices were down from the month before (−0.3%). For Vancouver it was the 18th consecutive month without a decline, with the index setting a record each month. For Toronto it was the 13th rise in 14 months, with new records set in each of the last five months. Victoria prices have set records in each of the last two months, while prices in Winnipeg set a new record in June.

Prices in Vancouver have been rising more than 2% monthly since February, bringing its 12-month rise to 23.4% in June, the highest on records. This run-up reflects very tight conditions on the resale market, to judge by active listings and sales as tallied by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Trailing far behind, but also pulling up the 12-month gain of the composite index, were Hamilton (13.8%), Toronto (12.8%) and Victoria (12.5%).

The composite index is now up 10.0% from a year earlier, the largest 12-month advance in six years. The 12-month gain was much less than that in Winnipeg (1.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.4%) and Montreal (0.5%). Prices were down from a year earlier in Halifax (−0.7%), Quebec City (−1.4%), Edmonton (−1.9%) and Calgary (−2.4%). The 12-month rise in Hamilton is the largest on record for that city.

Metropolitan area Index Level
% change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2011 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.
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The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

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Kan Zhu
Leader, Data & Advisory Solutions
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 416-360-8863 x 2270
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Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
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