OPINION: In Vancouver, October saw the first monthly house price decline in 22 months. The drop was concentrated in dwellings other than condos, which includes detached homes, the category where sales declined the most since their peak in last February (top chart). Sales should continue to decline in Vancouver due to the new rulings (qualification for an insured mortgage, 15% tax on foreigners’ acquisitions, etc.). We expect home prices to decline 10% overall (20% for detached dwellings) over the next twelve months. In Toronto, prices continued to climb at a fast clip in October (y/y price change of 17.4% is a record for the Queen City), as sales continued to break previous records (middle chart). But we expect activity there to slow following the new ruling on qualification for an insured mortgage. However, we think that the house price decline that will result will not be as large as in Vancouver, given the historically low supply on the home resale market, as depicted by the number of dwellings listed for sale, whether for condo apartments or other types of dwellings.