In May, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 2.2% from the previous month, the largest May gain in the 19-year history of the index. This monthly advance took the composite index to an all-time high for a 16th consecutive month. For the first time in 12 months, home prices were up on the month in all 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. They were led by three markets: Toronto (3.6%, a record for any month), Hamilton (3.1%, matching the record of June 2014) and Victoria (2.5%). Other strong gains were recorded in Quebec City (1.9%), Vancouver (1.5%), Halifax (1.4%) and Montreal (1.1%). Rises were healthy, though more moderate, in Ottawa-Gatineau (0.8%), Edmonton (0.6%), Calgary (0.5%) and Winnipeg (0.4%). Though all 11 markets were up on the month, not all could be said to show the highly visible trends of Toronto (16th straight monthly gain), Hamilton (15 straight months) and Victoria (13 of the last 14 months).
- Composite 11
- All Metropolitan Indices
- British Columbia
- New Brunswick
- Nova Scotia
This month, for the first time, we have surveyed 15 urban markets not included in the national composite index. Of the 12 of these in Ontario, the only one without a monthly gain in May was Sudbury (−1.9%). The seven of them located in the Golden Horseshoe show persistent uptrends – gains for 15 straight months in Barrie, Oshawa and Peterborough and in 14 of the last 15 months in Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, Brantford and St. Catharines–Niagara.
In May, the composite index was up 13.9% from a year earlier, an acceleration from April and close to the record 14.1% of September 2006. The 12-month increase was led by Toronto (a record 28.7%), Hamilton (a record 23.5%) and Victoria (19.7%). For Toronto it was a 14th straight month of acceleration in 12-month home price inflation. The 12-month rise in Vancouver (8.2%), though strong, was well below the countrywide average. The gains over a year earlier were much smaller in Ottawa-Gatineau (4.8%), Halifax (3.9%), Winnipeg (2.7%), Montreal (1.7%) and Calgary (1.3%). Prices were down from a year earlier in Edmonton (−2.2%) and Quebec City (−2.6%).
All seven of the Golden Horseshoe markets not included in the composite index (Barrie, Brantford, Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, Oshawa, Peterborough, St. Catharines–Niagara) showed double-digit gains from a year earlier, justifying the Ontario government’s application of its market-cooling measures to these markets as well as to Hamilton and Greater Toronto Area.
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Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada