In July, the national composite rise was significantly driven by a 2.1% increase in the market with the largest aggregate property value: Toronto. While this looks strong given the current context in the GTA, note that a weakening is occurring in the unsmoothed index for “dwellings other than condos” which is down 1.6%. This abrupt trend reversal in the index of Toronto’s least affordable type of dwelling is consistent with the recent loosening reported in the home resale market.
Among other markets included in the National Composite, monthly index increases were larger than normal for July in Victoria and Vancouver (2.8%), Hamilton (2.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (2.0%) and Montreal (1.6%). The index for each of these markets reached an all-time high, which is consistent with the vigour of the home-resale market. Monthly increases were close to the July norm in Winnipeg (0.7%), Edmonton (0.6%), Calgary (0.4%) and Quebec City (0.4%). The Halifax index was down 1.1% on the month
- Composite 11
- All Metropolitan Indices
- British Columbia
In the 14 other markets not included in the countrywide composite index, 12 of which are in Ontario, index values were flat on the month in Sudbury and up in all the others, with increases ranging from 0.3% in Peterborough to 4.6% in Brantford.
In July the composite index was up 14.2% from a year earlier, repeating the record 12-month gain of June. The rise was led by Toronto (28.0%), Hamilton (25.2%) and Victoria (16.3%). Vancouver’s increase of 8.6% over a year earlier, though strong, was well below the countrywide average. The 12-month advance was much smaller in Ottawa-Gatineau (3.6%), Montreal (3.3%), Calgary (1.8%), Quebec City (1.4%), Halifax (1.2%), Edmonton (0.5%) and Winnipeg (0.1%).
Index values were up from a year earlier in all 14 of the markets not included in the composite index, though the 12-month increase ranged widely – from 1.8% in Sudbury to 35.2% in Barrie.
 Note on methodology: The current month’s contributing values represent closed & registered sales with the provincial land registry in the current reporting month. The indices of the 11 metropolitan markets comprising the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index™ illustrate house price trends by utilizing a rolling average of the last three months raw indices to produce that month’s official index level. This procedure allows for the evening-out of month-to-month fluctuations. More granular monthly data is available upon request, subject to subscription fees. To view our full methodology, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca
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Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada