A third straight monthly decline in November
In November the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.5% from the previous month, the third consecutive monthly decline and the largest for a month of November outside of a recession. Indexes were down for four of the 11 metropolitan areas surveyed: Toronto (−1.4%), Hamilton (−1.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.8%) and Edmonton (−0.7%). Indexes for the two West Coast markets, Vancouver and Victoria, were flat. Indexes were up for Montreal (1.0%), Quebec City (0.9%), Halifax (0.8%), (Calgary 0.7%) and Winnipeg (0.5%). For Toronto it was the fourth straight monthly decline, for a total drop of 7.1%. For Hamilton it was the third straight decline, for Ottawa-Gatineau and Edmonton the second.
However, the raw index* for Toronto was up 0.2% in November after four consecutive monthly declines totaling −8.5%. The retreat did not occur uniformly across all types of housing. The condo sub-index fell 4.4% in two months and then partly recovered with a gain of 2.3% over the last two months. Meanwhile, the sub-index for other types of housing declined in each of the last five months, for a total drop of −10.8%. Last month’s decline was the smallest of the five at −0.6%. November’s increase in the raw index could have been caused by some buyers rushing to buy before the implementation in January of the new ruling on qualification to an uninsured mortgage. The assumption of a rush is based on the fact that sales rose from October to November, bucking the usual seasonal trend.
- Composite 11
- All Metropolitan Indices
- British Columbia
- New Brunswick
- Nova Scotia
The stabilization of the Vancouver index in November came after six consecutive months of all-time highs. The condo sub-index has been especially vigorous, 10 consecutive months of increases for a total rise of 19.0%. The Montreal and Halifax indexes were also at record highs.
In November the composite index was up 9.2% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month gain since June 2016 and a fourth consecutive deceleration from record 12-month gains of 14.2% in both June and July. The November 12-month rise was led by Victoria (14.0%), Vancouver (13.5%), Hamilton (12.3%) and Toronto (10.6%). The 12-month advance was much smaller in Montreal (6.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (4.9%), Halifax (2.1%), Calgary (1.8%), Quebec City (1.0%), Winnipeg (0.8%) and Edmonton (0.2%).
Among 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, indexes for Barrie and Oshawa were down for a fourth straight month and those for Brantford and Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo for a third straight month. All 14 indexes were nevertheless up from a year earlier, though the 12-month increase ranged widely from 3.7% in Thunder Bay to 19.3% in the St. Catharines–Niagara market.
*Note on methodology: The current-month data used to calculate the index are those of closed sales registered in the provincial land registry. To illustrate the home price trend, the published indexes of the 11 metropolitan markets entering into the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index™ are moving averages of the last three months of raw indexes. This procedure evens out month-to-month fluctuations. More granular monthly data are available upon request, possibly subject to subscription fees. For further information about the methodology, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca
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Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada