OPINION: The published Composite index rose in August for a fifth month in a row, but these rises
only reflect usual seasonal patterns over this time of the year. Indeed, after seasonal
adjustment, the Composite index was actually flat in August after drops in June and July.
So, at the national level, the national market is certainly not displaying underlying
strength. This is mostly a reflection of Toronto and Vancouver, the two most important
real estate markets in Canada. The published index for Toronto showed a fifth monthly
increase in a row, but its seasonally adjusted counterpart displayed the opposite with
five consecutive declines. In Vancouver, the seasonally adjusted index was down for a
third month in a row (left chart). In August, seasonally adjusted indices declined or were
flat in six of the nine other metropolitan regions covered. That being said, there are
areas displaying underlying strength, such as Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau, whose
indices recorded a string of unusually large increases over the past few months
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