In October the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was down 0.4% from the previous month. An October decline is not the norm – this was only the fourth in 20 years of index history. It was also the first index decline in eight months. The most striking aspect of the retreat is its diffusion. For the first time since December 2014, the component indexes for 10 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed were down on the month – Victoria (−0.1%), Toronto (−0.2%), Winnipeg (−0.2%), Calgary (−0.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.4%), Hamilton (−0.5%), Edmonton (−0.7%), Vancouver (−0.8%), Quebec City (−1.0%) and Halifax (−1.0%). The exception was Montreal, whose seventh consecutive monthly gain (+0.2%) was consistent with its seller’s-market conditions. For Calgary it was the 10th month without a rise in the last 13 months, hardly surprising considering the worsening of market conditions over the period. For Vancouver it was the third consecutive month without a rise.
- Composite 11
- All Metropolitan Indices
- British Columbia
- New Brunswick
- Nova Scotia
In October the composite index was up 2.8% from a year earlier, a larger 12-month rise than in August and September because a year earlier the index fell abruptly in those two months. October 12-month rises were well above the countrywide average in Victoria (5.2%) and Vancouver (4.6%) thanks to gains earlier this year and in Montreal (5.0%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (5.0%) thanks to gains in the last six months. Indexes were also up from a year earlier in Winnipeg (3.4%), Hamilton (2.8%), Halifax (2.4%) and Toronto (1.9%). Indexes were down from a year earlier in Edmonton (−0.5%), Quebec City (−0.6%) and Calgary (−1.4%).
Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In October, all of these were down from the previous month. Two of them, Barrie and Oshawa, were, like Toronto and Hamilton, below their peaks of Q3 2017. Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe, five of them in Ontario and two in B.C. In October. Three of these were down from the previous month. The 12-month rise of these indexes varied widely, from -0.1% in Thunder Bay to 11.4% in Windsor.
Of the 25 metropolitan-market indexes, only five did not decrease in October, the smallest diffusion of gains since December 2012.
 Note on methodology: The current-month data used to calculate the index are those of closed sales registered in the provincial land registry. To illustrate the home price trend, the published indexes of the 11 metropolitan markets entering into the Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index™ are moving averages of the last three months of raw indexes, a procedure that evens out month-to-month fluctuations. More granular monthly data are available upon request, subject to subscription fees. For our full methodology, please visit www.housepriceindex.ca
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Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada