Post Category: Monthly Reports
February 20, 2020

The 12-month rise of the national index has been supported by Eastern Canada

In January the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM edged up 0.1% from the previous month, a so-so showing for a month of January. In only three of the last 10 years (including last year) has the January change been lower. The composite index was braked this January by declines of the indexes for Quebec City (−1.4%), Calgary (−1.1%), Victoria (−0.8%), Winnipeg (−0.7%) and Halifax (−0.1%). The other six indexes were up: Edmonton 0.1%, Ottawa-Gatineau 0.1%, Toronto 0.2%, Vancouver 0.2%, Montreal 0.5% and Hamilton 0.8%.

The markets that appreciated most in the 12 months ending in January were all in eastern Canada – Ottawa-Gatineau 7.9%, Hamilton 6.7%, Montreal 6.7%, Halifax 6.4% and Toronto 4.5%. The resale markets in these urban areas are considered seller’s markets. Twelve-month growth was minimal in the indexes for Winnipeg (0.3%) and Victoria (0.3%), and negative in Edmonton (−0.1%), Quebec City (−1.2%), Calgary (−1.6%) and Vancouver (−3.6%). This last market has been improving recently; its index has shown no retreat in the last four months.

For the national composite index the gain from a year earlier was 2.1% in January, a sixth month of acceleration of the 12-month advance.

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the composite index, indexes exist for the seven other urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe. In general, the movement of these indexes over the 12-month  period consisted of a slow start followed by a spectacular surge. The net rise from a year earlier was 8.3% for Guelph, 8.5% for Brantford, 8.4% for Kitchener, 7.0% for St. Catharines and 5.4% for Oshawa. Conversely, in Barrie  (+4.6%) and Peterborough (+9.9%) the major part of the gain took place in the first half of the period.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for seven markets outside the Golden Horseshoe. Of the two in B.C., Abbotsford-Mission has been struggling and its index is down 3.8% from a year earlier, while Kelowna has been recovering for eight months and is up 4.8% from a year earlier. Of the five in Ontario, Thunder Bay (+4.8%) began the period strongly and then lost ground. The story was the opposite in the indexes for Windsor (+10.4%), London (+8.6%) and Kingston (+10.9%). Curiously, the 12-month rise of the index for Sudbury was concentrated mainly in May.

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

Disclaimer

This monthly report, its layout and design as well as its content, including (without limitation) index data and related information and materials (“Index Data”) are protected by copyright law, both individually and as a collective work or compilation, and by trade-mark law, and other applicable laws.  National Bank of Canada (“NBC”) and Teranet Inc. (“Teranet”) grant to you a limited non-exclusive, non-transferable license to view, copy and print this monthly report, provided that all copies that you make must be solely for your non-commercial, personal use, and must retain all copyright and other notices that are on this web site.  Except as provided in the previous sentence, you may not (for either commercial or non-commercial use) use, distribute, sell, modify, transmit, revise, reverse engineer, republish, post or create derivative works (where applicable) of any content of this monthly report without the prior written permission of Teranet and National Bank (who are referred to collectively herein as the “Index Data Providers”).  Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, the Index Data and other Index Data Provider intellectual property contained in this monthly report may not be used as a basis for any financial instruments or products (including, without limitation, passively managed funds and index-linked derivative securities), or used to verify or correct data in any other compilation of data or index, or used to create any other data or index (custom or otherwise), without the Index Data Providers’ prior written permission.  You acknowledge and agree that you will not acquire any rights or licenses in the content of this monthly report.

The Index Data is for informational purposes only, and the user of the information contained in the Index Data assumes the entire risk of any use made of the Index Data. You understand and agree that the Index Data is provided "as is" and neither National Bank of Canada (“NBC”) nor Teranet Inc. (“Teranet”, and together with NBC, the “Index Data Providers”) warrants the accuracy, completeness, non-infringement, originality, timeliness or any other characteristic of the Index Data.

The Index Data is not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Further, none of the Index Data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Reproduction, redistribution or any other form of copying or transmission of the Index Data without the Index Data Providers’ prior written consent is strictly prohibited. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, the Index Data and other Index Data Provider intellectual property may not be used as a basis for any financial instruments or products (including, without limitation, passively managed funds and index-linked derivative securities), or used to verify or correct data in any other compilation of data or index, or used to create any other data or index (custom or otherwise), without the Index Data Providers’ prior written permission.

In no event shall any of NBC, Teranet, their respective affiliates, any of their or their direct or indirect information providers nor any other third party involved in, or related to, compiling, computing or creating any of the Index Information (collectively, the "Index Data Provider Parties") have any liability to any person or entity for any damages, whether direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, loss of use, lost profits or revenues or any other economic loss) arising in any manner out of your use or inability to use any of the Index Data contained in this monthly report, even if such party might have anticipated, or was advised or notified of, the possibility of such damages.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

In addition to their informational role, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ was developed to be a benchmark for financial professionals. Teranet and NBC offer licenses covering all index-linked products.

Teranet offers e-services to the legal, real estate, government, financial and healthcare markets. Combining our focus on customer needs with technical sophistication and operational simplicity, our comprehensive products and services include property information, transaction management, collateral risk management, geospatial information, workflow software and enterprise solutions.

National Bank of Canada is an integrated provider of financial services to retail, commercial, corporate and institutional clients. It operates in three business segments—Personal and Commercial, Wealth Management and Financial Markets—with total assets in excess of $216 billion as at October 31, 2015. Through its nearly 20,000 employees, National Bank offers a complete range of services that include banking and investment solutions for individuals and businesses as well as securities brokerage, insurance and wealth management services. National Bank is the leading bank in Quebec and the partner of choice for small and medium-sized enterprises. It is also the sixth largest bank in Canada with branches in almost every province. Clients in the United States, Europe and other parts of the world are served through a network of representative offices, subsidiaries and partnerships. Its head office is located in Montreal and its securities are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: