Home prices accelerate in February
In February the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.5% from the previous month, an acceleration from the January increase after three consecutive months of slowing. The advance was led by four of the 11 constituent markets: Halifax (2.3%), Hamilton (1.1%), Vancouver (0.8%) and Quebec City (0.7%). Rises of less than the countrywide average were reported for Montreal (0.5%), Victoria (0.4%), Calgary (0.4%) and Toronto (0.4%). The index for Winnipeg was flat on the month. Down from the month before were the indexes for Edmonton (−0.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.5%). After three months, from September to November last fall, in which all 11 markets of the composite index were up from the month before, February was a third consecutive month in which one or more markets were down on the month.
The February rise is consistent with the increase in the number of home sales over the last several months reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association. For a sixth straight month, the number of sale pairs entering into the 11 metropolitan indexes was higher than a year earlier. The unsmoothed composite index, seasonally adjusted, was up 1.1% in February, suggesting that the uptrend of the published (smoothed) index could persist.
- Composite 11
- All Metropolitan Indices
- British Columbia
- New Brunswick
- Nova Scotia
The February composite index was up 9.8% from a year earlier. This was a seventh consecutive acceleration and the strongest 12-month gain since September 2017. It was led by five markets – Ottawa-Gatineau (19.0%), Halifax (18.7%), Hamilton (18.1%), Montreal (15.1%) and Toronto (10.1%). Lagging the countrywide average were Victoria (9.4%), Quebec City (7.5%), Vancouver (7.3%), Winnipeg (5.9%), Edmonton (2.1%) – and Calgary (0.8%), whose rise from a year earlier was the first since June 2018.
Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the countrywide composite, indexes exist for seven smaller urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe – Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa and Peterborough. In January all seven were up from the previous month and from a year earlier. The 12-month gains ranged from 17.2% for Peterborough to 23.1% for Oshawa.
Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for 13 markets outside the Golden Horseshoe. Seven of them are in provinces other than Ontario: Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna, B.C.; Lethbridge, Alberta; Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke, Quebec; and Moncton and Saint John, New Brunswick. The February indexes for all of them were up from the previous month, with gains ranging from 0.3% for Saint John to 3.5% for Sherbrooke. All seven were also up from a year earlier, with gains ranging from 2.1% for Lethbridge to 20.2% for Moncton.
As for the six markets in Ontario outside the Golden Horseshoe – London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay and Sudbury – their indexes were up from the previous month for all except Thunder Bay (−1.8%). The 12-month changes ranged from +9.7% for Thunder Bay to +22.3% for Belleville.
 The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index is based on the repeat-sales method, i.e. on the change in price between the two most recent sales of properties that have been sold at least twice.
|Metropolitan area||Index Level||% change m/m||% change y/y||From peak||Peak date|
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada