In August, the Teranet-National Bank HPI saw record 12-month growth of 18.4%. This past year has been characterized by widespread price increases in the regions covered by the index. Indeed, prices were up 10% or more in 87% of the 32 urban markets surveyed. In addition, price growth was up 30% or more in 45% of markets. However, this dizzying growth in major urban centers hides a very different dynamic when analyzing the month-over-month variations. In fact, using the unsmoothed composite HPI adjusted for seasonal effects, there have now been five consecutive months in which the monthly increase in prices has been lower than in the previous month. From July to August, prices even remained essentially unchanged (+0.1%). This stagnation coincides with a decrease in activity in the resale market, which is potentially being held back by affordability issues after the staggering price increases. Indeed, home sales have been declining month-to-month for five months now. However, we do not see prices decreasing in the short term as the level of sales remains high on a historical basis and the inventory of properties for sale remains very low.

September 2021